More than 80 Republicans are vying for the party’s nomination for state representative or senator in the May primary in 65 districts across the state.
Fewer than 20 are incumbents, and three are current or former members of the Oregon House who are instead going after Oregon Senate seats. The other three-quarters of Republican candidates are largely newcomers.
Many have held roles in local offices at the city and county level, and some have run several times, narrowly lost and are continuing to “elbow their way in,” said Bryan Iverson, a Republican strategist working for several candidates, and a Senate staffer and husband of Rep. Vikki Breese-Iverson, R-Prineville.
In a state with a Democratic super majority and a November general election that’s likely to be a referendum on the Republican party under President Donald Trump, Republicans nationwide are expected to have an uphill battle to the ballot box in the fall. Still, Iverson and Republican strategist David Kilada, who runs the political consultancy Intisar Strategies, said they expect Republicans who win in the primary to hold onto seats the party has, and to possibly gain a few more. Kilada is also representing candidates in several Republican primary races.
Among the party goals, they said, is to nominate candidates who can hold onto seats being vacated by three incumbent Republican state senators who are barred from running for reelection after participating in a six-week walkout in 2023 over Democratic bills. They also hope to eventually win back a North Coast seat held by a Republican-turned-Democrat, and to make inroads in a few Willamette Valley districts.
Republican primary races for Oregon Legislature by the numbers:
House:
70 Republicans are running in races for 52 seats in the Oregon House of Representatives.
18 of them are incumbents.
4 of the incumbents are being challenged for the party’s nomination.
25 incumbents are running unchallenged.
52 non-incumbent candidates are running.
26 are running unchallenged and will automatically get the party nomination.
22 are running against each other in 8 races.
Senate:
17 Republicans are running in races for 13 seats in the Oregon Senate.
0 are incumbents, and 0 incumbents are being challenged.
3 are current or former Oregon House members.
11 of the 17 candidates will automatically get their party’s nomination because they are running unopposed.
The other 6 are running against each other in 2 races.
Filling vacancies
Some of the most stacked Republican primary races are for seats being vacated by state Sens. Suzanne Weber of Tillamook, Cedric Hayden of Fall Creek and Kim Thatcher of Keizer, all of whom are barred from running for reelection. Although the districts lean Republican, Democrats in November are hoping to take Weber’s seat in the 16th Senate District and Thatcher’s 11th Senate District seat, while some competitive Republican candidates are hoping to maintain party power in the area.
Among the Republicans vying for Weber’s seat are Clatsop County Commissioner Courtney Bangs, business owner Tripp Dietrich and Frank Mansfield, a retired aerospace engineer.
Iverson, who is working for Dietrich’s campaign, and Kilada, who is working for Bangs, said in the end the Republican primary will be between Bangs — who has Weber’s endorsement and name recognition — and Dietrich, with Bangs being the more likely candidate. Whoever wins will likely face former Democratic state Sen. Rachel Armitage of St. Helens in the November election. Armitage is one of three Democrats running in the party’s primary.
The races for Thatcher and Hayden’s seat will also be some of the biggest races this year, Iverson and Kilada said. Current state Rep. Jami Cate, a farmer from Linn County, is running for the party nomination for the 6th Senate District seat now held by Hayden, along with Springfield School Board member Nicole De Graff and Jack Tibbetts, a farmer and small business owner who served as a Democrat for five years on the Santa Rosa City Council in California before moving to Oregon in 2021.
Iverson, who helped Cate get elected to the House in 2020, said he feels certain she’ll win the nomination and eventually the seat in the Republican-leaning district in November. Democrat and dietician Sierrah Williams is running for her party’s nomination unopposed.
“Voters have seen her (Cate’s) name on the ballot six or seven times now. She’s done a lot of work in her district. She didn’t even spend any money in the general election last time,” he said.
In Thatcher’s district, former state Rep. Tracy Cramer, of Gervais, who narrowly lost her reelection in the 22nd House District in 2024 to Democratic Rep. Lesly Muñoz, is running unopposed for the Republican nomination. Kilada and Iverson said Cramer’s Democratic challengers in the fall — either former state Rep. Teresa Alonso Leon or former Salem City Councilor Virginia Stapleton — would struggle to defeat her in the Republican-leaning district.
Trying to flip seats
Among the seats that would be easiest for Republicans to flip, according to Kilada and Iverson, is the 32nd House District along Oregon’s northwest coast, currently held by Rep. Cyrus Javadi, who was first elected as a Republican in 2022 and again in 2024.
Javadi left the Republican party for the Democratic party in September due to “extreme politicians in today’s Republican Party,” whose values he no longer aligns with, he said at the time. Javadi is running unopposed in the Democratic primary, but three Republicans are vying for the chance to challenge him in the November general election: Adam Dean, a police officer who also owns a convenience store and RV park; Christian Honl, a retired tech professional who worked for Intel for 27 years; and Max Sherman, a retired high school teacher who taught agricultural sciences in Tillamook and Canby.
“Being out there, talking to people, like, the Republicans are really fired up against Javadi. That’s very clear. And I just think that race is going to be a moratorium on Javadi switching parties,” Iverson said.
Iverson is working for Dean’s campaign, and Kilada on Honl’s campaign. Kilada previously helped get Javadi elected in the district and said the now-Democrat will face major backlash from voters for voting last year in support of a gas and payroll tax to fund the Oregon Department of Transportation.
“I don’t take anything for granted, but that seat has been one since 2020 that has trended a little more red over time. It’s still definitely blue-leaning, but it’s one that we can win,” he said.
Many of the other seats that the strategists are eyeing for a Republican flip in November depend in part on who wins the Democratic primary. Among them are the 7th House District being vacated by Rep. John Lively, a Springfield Democrat who has served in the Legislature for 14 years, and the 40th House District seat currently held by Rep. Annessa Hartman, D-Gladstone, who is not running for reelection while she undergoes treatment for cervical cancer.
Republican Adam Wilson, a wealth advisor, is running uncontested in the primary for Lively’s seat while three Democrats duke it out for their party nomination. Kilada said the Democrats running for their party’s nomination in the race — archaeologist Ky Fireside, attorney K.C. Huffman and Springfield City Councilor Kori Rodley — are too progressive for the district’s voters.
“I think Springfield voters have been used to a somewhat more moderate Democrat, and might be surprised to see who the nominee ends up being,” he said.
When it comes to Hartman’s seat, police officer Adam Baker, who narrowly lost to Hartman in 2024, is running for the Republican nomination against Sue Leslie, a contractor for wireless telecom and utilities companies who Iverson described as “more of a far-righter.”
Whoever wins would be up against one of two Democratic challengers vying for their party’s nomination: Michael Sugar, a West Linn High School teacher and debate coach, and Charles Gallia, a health policy consultant.
“I think if you get an Adam Baker versus Gallia, I think we got a really good shot there. I think that one matches up really well for us. I think it’s a good race,” Iverson said of the potential to switch the seat from one held by a Democrat to one held by a Republican. “If you get Sugar versus Sue Leslie, I think Republicans don’t worry about it and it goes to the Democrats.”
Another big House race that could lead to a seat flipping red, according to Kilada, is in the 22nd House District in Woodburn, where incumbent Democrat Muñoz narrowly defeated Republican Cramer in 2024. Kilada is working on the campaign for Noemi Legaspi, a mental health counselor and former Woodburn School Board member who is running uncontested for the Republican nomination. Muñoz is also running uncontested in the Democratic primary.
“It could be the biggest House race, or at least one of them,” Kilada said. “That area has been trending more and more Republican,” he added, though Republican voter registration still lags Democrat voter registration.
Incumbent Republican representatives facing a challenger
Few Republican incumbents are being challenged during the upcoming primary.
State Rep. Kevin Mannix, a Republican from Salem who has served more than a dozen years as a Democrat and Republican in both chambers of the Legislature and four of the most recent years representing the 21st House District in north Salem and Keizer, is challenged by Art Stevenson, a retired small business owner.
State Rep. Dwayne Yunker, a Republican from Grants Pass first appointed in 2023 to represent the 3rd House District, is challenged by Grants Pass City councilor Seth Benham.
State Rep. Matt Bunch, a Republican from Oregon City appointed in November to fill now-state-Sen. Christine Drazan’s seat in the 51st House District, is challenged by realtor Dana Hindman-Allen.
Perhaps the most contentious incumbent challenge is to state Rep. Greg Smith, a Republican from Heppner and the longest-serving member of the Oregon Legislature, having held the 57th House District seat since 2002. Rancher and former Morrow County Commissioner Jim Doherty is challenging Smith, and has highlighted ethics violations by the long-term incumbent. The Oregon Government Ethics Commission found Smith violated state ethics laws while in office three times in the last two years, and an additional investigation over allegations are ongoing.
Iverson said even with the ethics violations, it’s unlikely Smith will be unseated.
“There’s very few issues anymore that you can really win on, and beat an incumbent on, in a primary. That’s very hard to find that defining issue unless they really did something egregious,” he said.
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