(The Center Square) – More polls indicate that Republicans face tough battles in statewide races in Texas in November, with Hispanics concerned about the economy driving renewed support for Democrats.
A new Texas Southern University Barbara Jordan Public Policy and Research Center poll shows Gov. Greg Abbott and other Republicans ahead by a handful of points in their respective statewide races with the exception of the U.S. Senate race. Other polls show closer margins and Republicans losing support among Hispanic voters.
The TSU poll released Tuesday has Abbott ahead of Democrat state Rep. Gina Hinojosa by four points; 49% to 45%. It also shows for the first time that his unfavorability rating is higher than his favorability rating among those polled.
In the U.S. Senate Race, Democrat state Rep. James Talarico leads Attorney General Ken Paxton by one point, 47% to 46%. Both candidates have higher unfavorability ratings than favorability among those polled. Talarico leads among Hispanic and Black voters by 19 points and 77 points, respectively. Paxton leads among white voters by 19 points.
In the race for lieutenant governor, incumbent Republican Dan Patrick leads Democrat state Rep. Vikki Goodwin by 6 points. In the race for Texas attorney general, Republican state Rep. Mayes Middleton leads Democrat state Rep. Nathan Johnson by 5 points. In other statewide races, Republicans lead Democrats by between 6 and 8 points.
When Republican voters were asked which version of the party they identified with, 39% said MAGA, 37% said traditional conservative, 15% said moderate, 5% said libertarian, 4% said none. More than a quarter of moderates, 27%, said they plan to vote for Talarico.
A Cook Political Report and TelevisaUnivision poll found that Democrats lead Republicans among Hispanic voters 2 to 1 – reversing gains Texas Republicans made in this demographic in previous elections.
The survey, conducted by the Democratic firm, Hart Research, and Republican firm, OnMessage Inc, includes an oversampling of Hispanic voters in the Rio Grande Valley, who previously voted for President Donald Trump by large margins in the last two elections.
In 2024, border districts flipped red for the first time in Texas history, Democrats lost by historic margins and Democratic officials left their party and became Republicans. In 2024, Trump also gained minority voters in Texas across the board, The Center Square reported.
Two years later, Trump’s approval rating dropped to 33% among Hispanic voters in Texas. The Cook/Univision report notes: “Democrats’ strong showing among Hispanics in the Lone Star state is a significant shift from 2024, when Trump carried Hispanic voters by 10 points and Republican Sen. Ted Cruz carried them by three.”
It found that 18% of Hispanic Texans who voted for Trump in 2024 disapprove of the job he is doing today. Large percentages also say they won’t vote Republican: 19% say they will vote for Talarico; 22% say they won’t vote for Republican congressional candidates.
The poll has Talarico leading Paxton among Hispanic voters by 63% to 30%, “including a whopping 73% of self-described independents.”
It also shows Hinojosa leading Abbott among Hispanic voters, 60% to 33%. In 2022, Abbott won 40% of the Hispanic vote.
The findings are consistent with a previous TSU poll that found that in three congressional races in the Rio Grande Valley, where all candidates are Hispanic, Republicans are trailing in races they were previously expected to win, The Center Square reported.
Historically, Hispanic voters in Texas and in border communities have supported strong border security and immigration policies, The Center Square reported. The Cook analysis points to Hispanic voters in Texas opposing Trump administration deportation policies, especially after citizens and noncitizens have been shot by federal agents.
“But it is the economy, not immigration, that is the most important issue for Hispanic voters in the state,” the report found. Hispanic voters, by a 2-1 margin, rate economic concerns as their top priority as the cost of living has risen under Trump, citing tariff policies and the war against Iran causing gas, food and other costs to go up.
A recent independent, non-partisan research institute ReconMR poll shows closer margins among statewide races. It has Hinojosa leading Abbott by four points, Talarico leading Paxton by six points, and the lieutenant governor and AG races statistically tied.
The leftward shift is largely attributed to independent voters, it found. In the governor’s race, “while voters narrowly favor Hinojosa for election, they don’t think she’ll win the election,” ReconMR Senior Research Analyst Lindsey Hendren said. “When asked who they think will win the election for governor, 62% say Abbott. Nearly a third of voters who say they’ll vote for Hinojosa think Abbott will ultimately win the election.”
She also notes that Paxton dropping in the polls is due to him losing support among Republicans. “Paxton’s Senate bid is being undermined by defections from within his own party. While nearly all Democrats say they are supporting Talarico, just under 9 in 10 Republicans say they are supporting Paxton. However, when asked who they want to control the Senate after November, nearly all voters say they want their respective party to win, highlighting Paxton’s weakness among his own party,” Hendren said.
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