How will new tax laws affect refunds?

The poll of 2,000 U.S. taxpayers found 46% are aware of new tax law changes being applied this year, but 56% of those aware admitted they have no idea what those changes actually mean for them.

A majority (84%) said they pay attention to tax law changes, but only 55% do research on what tax rules or changes will be. In fact, 41% admit they do "little to no" research on what the changes mean.

Similarly, four in five taxpayers said they were aware of the current administration's One Big Beautiful Bill Act, and 67% believe incoming tax law changes, such as the OBBBA, will personally affect them — 20% to a "significant or major" degree.

Commissioned by TaxSlayer and conducted by Talker Research, the study found two in three (63%) don't plan on making any financial decisions before these tax changes take effect that could help them, such as buying an EV, making large donations, or adjusting their investments.

Despite tax changes planned for this year, more than half (52%) believe the amount they'll pay in taxes and the amount they receive as a refund will be largely unchanged.

Meanwhile, 31% believe they'll pay more in taxes and 16% believe they'll receive a smaller refund; 17% believe they'll pay less in taxes and 31% believe they will receive a bigger refund.

“Each tax season, there are a mix of factors that can influence your return — everything from life changes to updates in tax law,” said Seth Babb, Head of Consumer Product at TaxSlayer. “This year, the changes introduced under the One Big Beautiful Bill are expected to affect a wide range of taxpayers. A little time spent understanding what’s new can make a real difference in how confident and prepared you are to file.”

Research also looked at how tax filing and tax refunds are set to look this year, compared to last year.

This year, 39% said they plan to file their taxes early, while another 58% plan to file just on time for April 15. This is a slight shift from last year, where 43% filed early and 54% planned to file on time.

Those filing early this year shared the same motivations for doing so as last year: getting their refund earlier (60% this year, 55% last year) and not having to deal with it when there's pressure (46% this year, 43% last year).

This tax year, the average American believes they'll receive $1,662 in their tax refund, a few dollars less from what it was last year: $1,700. Of the 80% of taxpayers who said they received a tax refund last year, 44% felt surprised by the amount they got back and 31% said they recalled feeling disappointed.

Over half (55%) believe their refund will roughly be the same this year as it was last year. Meanwhile, 18% believe their refund will be bigger and 16% believe it will be smaller.

Like last year, the survey found a majority plan to spend their tax refund money on necessities (57%) rather than luxuries (8%). However, the amount who felt it critical to use their refund on necessities dropped significantly from what it was last year (77%).

Those using their refunds for necessities plan to put their money towards groceries and essential goods (54%), paying for necessary bills like rent and utilities (53%), paying down credit card debt (37%), savings (29%), leaving it in their checking account (28%) or home repair costs (24%).

“Even in a year with significant changes, people shouldn’t feel pressure to become experts overnight,” continued Babb. “What matters is having reliable tools when it’s time to file. While refunds may look different for many taxpayers this year, a little preparation and the right support can go a long way to prevent surprises.”

Research methodology:

Talker Research surveyed 2,000 American taxpayers who have access to the internet; the survey was commissioned by TaxSlayer and administered and conducted online by Talker Research between Nov. 13 and Nov. 17, 2025. A link to the questionnaire can be found here.

To view the complete methodology as part of AAPOR’s Transparency Initiative, please visit the Talker Research Process and Methodology page.