(The Center Square) – Republican U.S. Sen. Darline Graham’s polling lead over Democrat Dr. Annie Andrews for South Carolina’s seat in the U.S. Senate seat was again narrow in a sampling released Sunday.
There hasn’t been a Democrat from the state in the U.S. Senate since Sen. Fritz Holdings retired in 1998, and this particular seat hasn’t had a Democrat since the day – Sept. 16, 1964 – the late Sen. Strom Thurmond during his second term switched to the Republican Party, becoming the state’s first GOP senator since 1879. Graham won a special election primary to take the spot on the ballot of her late brother, Sen. Lindsey Graham.
Long believed a secure Republican seat, super political action committees have shifted resources of late to be sure it remains. Republicans have 53 seats in the chamber, and 35 seats – including two special elections – are on the ballot.
In Sunday’s poll from Rasmussen Reports, Graham led Andrews 49%-45%. The poll sampled 837 likely voters Oct. 5-8 and carries a +/- 3% margin of error. The same pollster in September had Graham ahead 48%-43%.
In results released Oct. 2, InsiderAdvantage’s poll of the candidates Sept. 28-29 was a statistical tie – meaning within the +/- 2.8% margin of error. Graham led 46%-45%.
InsiderAdvantage added the caveat, “Almost 10% of Republicans say they are voting for the Democrat. This is likely a ‘hangover’ with Republicans devoted to Ralph Norman from a race that is too fresh in their minds to forget.
“However, Republicans are 10 points more ‘enthusiastic’ about the race than Democrats, and as we are seeing in surveys all over the country, younger voters are not enthusiastic. Were we to weight the survey, based on expected turnout based on enthusiasm, Graham would likely be in the lead. However, it is too early to see if such trends will hold.”
Early in-person voting begins Monday of next week and runs through Oct. 31. Election Day is Nov. 3.
The special election became necessary when Lindsey Graham died July 11. Gov. Henry McMaster appointed Darline Graham to fulfill the remainder of the term in the 119th Congress that ends on the first of January, and she decided to seek the six-year term by succeeding her brother on the Nov. 3 ballot.
From a crowded field, and after a failed run for governor in the June primary, Norman emerged second to Graham in the special primary two weeks ago. Without achieving 50% plus one of the votes, a runoff was necessary.
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