An already moderate-to-below-average hurricane forecast for the 2026 season may receive a further boost if El Niño predictions materialize, according to experts.
Though it’s a natural climate pattern in which waters in the central and eastern Pacific become warmer than normal, El Niño can be disruptive — causing flooding, droughts, wildfires, crop damage, and economic losses. But it also tends to suppress hurricanes. The strong upper-level winds associated with El Niño often break up developing storms, preventing hurricanes from intensifying. This tends to reduce the number of dangerous tropical cyclones.
“El Niño does not completely shut down the hurricane season, but on average, it reduces the number of hurricanes,” Paul E. Roundy, a professor of atmospheric science at the University at Albany, told Insurify.
That trend, if it holds true, would be good news for homeowners, businesses, and insurers in coastal states. Last year was an unusually low season for hurricane-related insurance losses, and a similar outcome in 2026 would be welcome.
Hurricane-related insured losses plunged by 90% in 2025 to only a few billion dollars, down from roughly $50 billion or more in 2024, underscoring how a quiet landfall year can dramatically ease pressure on insurers even when storms still form.
The hurricane season runs from June to October.
Redistribution of risk
The 2026 hurricane season may see fewer hurricanes thanks to El Niño. But experts caution that El Niño would do nothing to dampen the potential severity of hurricanes that do occur.
“For businesses, the takeaway is simple,” Monarch Weather & Climate Intelligence warns in a recent report about the possibility of El Niño this year. “This is not a reduction in risk, it’s a redistribution of risk.”
“Past El Niño years have still produced major U.S. landfalls. Hurricane Bob (1991), Ian (2022), and Idalia (2023) are reminders that a single storm can define an entire season,” Crystal Egger, president and meteorologist at Monarch Weather & Climate Intelligence, wrote in an email to Insurify. “Lower frequency does not necessarily mean lower impact.”
Even in lower-activity seasons, she said, it takes only one well-timed landfall to drive significant impacts.
Still, Colorado State University’s widely cited forecast predicts a below-average season, with 13 named storms, six hurricanes, and two major hurricanes of Category 3 or higher.
But this forecast doesn’t yet fully include the effects of El Niño. Climate scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration now say there’s a 61% chance El Niño will develop by summer.
Some forecasts even suggest that a stronger, or “super,” El Niño could form later this year. That hasn’t happened since 2015, when it was one of the most powerful events on record.
“Although not an official classification, ‘Super El Niño’ refers to an exceptionally strong event, typically defined by tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures at least 2°C (3.6°F) above average, conditions that increase the likelihood of more widespread, intense, and longer-lasting weather impacts across the U.S., including heavier rainfall, flooding, and severe storms,” Egger wrote.
Outlooks suggest this climate pattern could emerge as early as the summer, strengthen through the fall, and reach peak intensity during the winter months, when the pattern’s influence on U.S. weather is typically most pronounced, according to Monarch.
“While it’s often associated with fewer Atlantic hurricanes, El Niño typically shifts storm tracks, increases rainfall in some regions, and amplifies heat and dryness in others. It can also lead to increased tropical activity in the Pacific, where conditions are often more favorable for storm development,” Monarch states. “These competing signals can lead to highly variable conditions from one region to another.”
El Niño could benefit more than just the Atlantic Coast
While El Niño typically reduces hurricane activity, the weather pattern can benefit other parts of the country as well. Northern states often have lower heating costs because El Niño typically leads to warmer winters. California and the Southwest typically benefit as well with increased rainwater totals.
What’s next? Following the pattern
In recent years, insured hurricane losses have shown a clear pattern. Most storms cause less than $10 billion in damage, but a few major landfalls, like hurricanes Ian in 2022 and Ida in 2021, make up most of the industry’s losses.
For now, insurers, homeowners, and businesses in coastal areas are waiting for NOAA’s official hurricane outlook, which usually comes out in late May. That forecast could change as the summer goes on.
“A strong El Niño and cooler early-season sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic may suppress initial activity,” Egger said. “But as waters warm, the risk can shift toward a more active late season, especially from August to October. Regardless, the Gulf Coast and Southeast remain most vulnerable to any landfalling storms.”
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