A pandemic political deal and feuding Democrats have made for a noisy start to the makeover of Oregon’s congressional maps in time for the 2022 election.
What was supposed to be a solo slam dunk has turned into a three-way high-speed slam dance.
Not just Democrats vs. Republicans, but Democrats vs. Democrats.
“It’s just inexplicable and arrogant,” U.S. Rep. Peter DeFazio, D-Springfield, told Politico magazine last month.
“Like shooting yourself in the head,” said U.S. Rep. Kurt Schrader, D-Salem.
The Democratic duo wasn’t hammering former President Donald Trump or U.S. House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif.
Their bitter reproach was aimed at Oregon House Speaker Tina Kotek, D-Portland, who had struck a deal to end a slowdown during the 2021 legislative session by giving Republicans a seat on the House Redistricting Committee. It would be an even 3-3 split between parties.
Kotek argued Oregon needed the deal to pass major bills on housing, unemployment, health, and other issues. Besides, Democrats have argued in the past that political parity was good government.
National Democrats called it the latest in a string of state Democrats “unilaterally disarming” their political advantage on redistricting in the shrinking number of states where Republicans didn’t control the Legislatures and governorship.
“In rabid partisan states that are controlled by Republicans, they’re carving up left and right,” said Rep. Gerry Connolly, D-Virginia.
Will history stick to script?
Oregon was supposed to be a bright spot in 2022 — a Democratic-controlled state that was getting a sixth congressional seat.
Democrats need all the help they can get. Since World War II, the party of a new president — Republican or Democrat — averages a loss of 26 seats in the first midterm election. The Senate is harder to forecast because of staggered six-year terms. But the president’s party typically loses two Senate seats.
If history sticks to the script, Republicans will wake up the morning after the Nov. 8, 2022, election in control of the House and Senate.
The national political map will have to play itself out.
The big question in Oregon was when the Legislature would get the block-by-block data needed.
On Thursday, the U.S. Census announced the Aug. 15 date for sending packets to the states was on track.
It wasn’t supposed to work out this way. Democrats had big majorities in both chambers of the Legislature and fellow Democrat, Gov. Kate Brown, to give her stamp of approval.
There would be none of the partisan tussle of the redistricting for the 2002 election or the forced smile compromise of the 2012 districts drawn by a power-split Legislature.
Democrats would make the maps and approve the maps. Republicans could make noise, but not much else.
Then came the COVID-19 pandemic and like every other part of life, redistricting plans teetered and fell.
The census count would have fits of stop-and-start. Dates for getting data to the Oregon Legislature were pushed back again and again. Constitutional deadlines were missed. The Oregon Supreme Court had to step in.
It ordered a timeline do-over. But at politically hypersonic speed.
The House and Senate redistricting committees would receive the data in mid-August. But meeting outside of a legislative session, the “interim” committee could talk and plan.
They had a starting point: round numbers. The new official population of Oregon was 4,237,256.
Each of the 30 Senate districts would include an average of 141,242 people. Nestled within each Senate district would be two House districts — a total of 60 — with an average population of 70,621.
The tougher task will be Congress. With six districts, each would have 706,209 people.
But exactly where and how the changes will be mapped won’t be known until next month.
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