Texas primaries test parties' fault lines as US midterms loom

Early voting is already underway across Texas, which is picking candidates for its 38 seats in the US House of Representatives, and for one of its two spots in the 100-member Senate.

The Republican Senate race pits four-term incumbent John Cornyn, a fixture of the party establishment, against state attorney general Ken Paxton, a hardline Trump ally who casts himself as a tribune of grassroots anger at Washington.

Congressman Wesley Hunt trails in third, appealing to pro-Trump voters uneasy with both.

For Democrats, the contest has become a choice between two high-profile messengers with competing theories of how to break a three-decade statewide losing streak.

Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett, a combative national figure in the party's anti-Trump resistance, faces state representative James Talarico, who argues Democrats must broaden their appeal with a more measured populist message.

- MAGA vs establishment -

The Cornyn–Paxton fight is less a conventional primary than a referendum on the post-Trump identity of the "Grand Old Party." 

Republican strategists still see Texas as a seat they should hold comfortably. But the bruising primary has absorbed money and attention, raising fears that a nominee with heavy baggage could make an ordinarily safe race unexpectedly costly.

Paxton, who survived impeachment in 2023 and ethics and personal controversies, is betting primary voters value ideological combat over conventional electability. 

The 63-year-old has built his profile through conservative legal challenges on divisive social issues, from transgender care to vaccine mandates, alongside alignment with Trump.

Cornyn, 74, represents institutional memory -- the belief that power is best preserved through coalition, predictability and incremental gain. Headline-grabbing insurgents can hand Democrats openings they should not have, his allies argue. 

Polling underscores Trump's enduring influence over primary voters, but the president has declined to offer an endorsement, telling reporters: "I support all three."

- Democratic 'electability' test -

Among Democrats, the divide is less ideological than strategic. 

Crockett, a 44-year-old African-American lawyer, argues the party needs a fighter capable of energizing turnout and commanding attention through sharp, viral exchanges with Republicans.

Talarico, 36, has drawn interest from party figures who believe a less polarizing nominee could perform better with swing voters in a large, diverse state.

Their contrast also revives an older Democratic tension in the South: whether demographic change has outpaced political habit.

Texas has never elected a Black senator and has sent a woman to the chamber only once, a history that still shapes strategic calculations even as the electorate grows younger and more diverse.

A late January University of Houston poll showed Paxton leading Cornyn and Crockett ahead of Talarico. But with single-digit margins, neither race appears close to producing a majority winner, raising the prospect of May runoffs.

- Why Texas matters beyond Texas -

As Republicans worry about risky candidates and Democrats debate the value of viral energy, Texas has become a high-profile test of what wins in the Trump era.

The race has spilled into the national media ecosystem.

Late-night host Stephen Colbert said CBS lawyers advised against airing an interview with Talarico over "equal time" concerns, a dispute that ricocheted across political media and highlighted how campaigns now rely as much on viral moments as traditional organizing.

The segment quickly topped five million YouTube views as Talarico brought in $2.5 million in donations in 24 hours.

But flashes of national momentum have often proved fleeting in Texas, where demographic change has not yet translated into durable statewide Democratic victories.

"Texas is still a red state," said Mark P. Jones, a research fellow at the University of Houston's Hobby School of Public Affairs, which conducted the January Senate race poll.

"And although these margins are narrow, either of the Democratic candidates will have their work cut out for them in November."

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