What will weather in Gorge be like?

For Dec. 6-8, the almanac predicts sunny and cold conditions; for Dec. 9-14, periods of rain and snow with cool temperatures; Dec. 15-25, occasional rain, mild temperatures; Dec. 26-31, periods of rain and snow with cool temperatures.

"Winter temperatures will be a couple of degrees above normal, on average, with the coldest periods in early to mid-December, late December, and mid- to late January," the almanac states in its annual weather summary for November 2012 to October 2013. "Rainfall will be below normal, while snowfall will be near normal. The snowiest periods will occur in early to mid-December and mid- to late January. The stormiest periods will come in early to mid-January, late January, and mid-February."

Matt Zaffino, chief meteorologist for KGW 8 in Portland, Ore., is calling for a winter with near average precipitation and near or slightly above average temperatures.

"But keep in mind, those are averages," Zaffino told The Enterprise. "It doesn't mean we won't get an outbreak of Artic air, which could of course lead to heavy snow in the Gorge. In fact, former Oregon State climatologist George Taylor did a study years ago that showed some of the snowiest winters in Hood River came during years like this with no El Ni¤o or no La Ni¤a. I call these No Ni¤o years."

Forecasters with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's new Center for Weather and Climate Prediction in College Park, Md., issued their annual winter outlook on Oct. 18. In it NOAA analysts said the western half of the continental U.S. and central and northern Alaska could be in for a warmer than average winter. They said a wavering El Ni¤o that they had expected to have developed by then makes this season's winter outlook less certain than previous years.

"This is one of the most challenging outlooks we've produced in recent years because El Ni¤o decided not to show up as expected," said Mike Halpert, deputy director of NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. "In fact, it stalled out [in September], leaving neutral conditions in place in the tropical Pacific."

In November, the center discontinued its El Ni¤o watch over the Pacific Ocean because the chance for it had decreased, though its development over the next few months can't be ruled out entirely.

According to NOAA, when the El Ni¤o influence is present, warmer ocean water in the equatorial Pacific shifts the patterns of tropical rainfall, which then influence the strength and position of the jet stream and storms over the Pacific Ocean and the Northwest region. This climate pattern, says NOAA, gives seasonal forecasters confidence in how the U.S. winter will unfold.

Professional forecasters for major Portland media, for their parts, use the weather information they've gathered and analyzed to make their own educated guesses about how winter will unfold locally.

Zaffino said the Gorge will have its share of east wind days, this winter with some low-elevation snow, "but perhaps not as many 500- to 1,000-foot snow-level days as the past few winters. And again, there is no less likelihood, in my view, of an Arctic outbreak this year compared to any other year."

But just because this winter's weather may be fairer, that doesn't mean getting around from place to place by vehicle will be any easier.

"When we get fair weather in winter, it can lead to bad driving conditions because of frost, fog, and freezing fog," Zaffino noted. "I'm talking about days where it's sunny and warm up in the mountains, but foggy and cool in the valleys. I don't see a pattern that would give us an above normal number of days like that this winter, but if we get stuck under a persistent area of pressure aloft, the result can be cold days in the valley. Of course in the Gorge, the east wind usually alleviates that, as least at the west end of the Gorge."