Geneva watch fair set to show war's effect on luxury sector

Organisers are expecting around 60,000 visitors during the week -- up from 55,000 last year -- despite the Middle East war casting doubts on the travel plans of retailers from the Gulf states and East Asia.

The conflict is "an additional challenge for the watchmaking industry", Yves Bugmann, president of the Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry, told AFP.

The sector already had a lot on its plate, including the US tariffs blitz, China emerging from a long real estate crisis, the strength of the Swiss franc and the price of gold, he said.

Before the war began, Jon Cox, an industry analyst with Kepler Cheuvreux financial services, was forecasting a rebound in Swiss watch exports in 2026, expecting growth of around five percent, he told AFP.

But the uncertainties triggered by the conflict are now likely to leave the Swiss watch industry facing "weak growth" in exports, he said.

Jean-Philippe Bertschy, an analyst at Swiss investment managers Vontobel, was forecasting four-percent growth at the start of the year, but is now leaning "more towards stagnation".

Bertschy said he would revise his estimates for 2026 after gauging the mood at Watches and Wonders.

The Middle East accounts for just under 10 percent of the watch market.

That "is not insignificant", Bertschy told AFP, especially since the region has witnessed "strong growth in recent years", with particular enthusiasm for top-end watches.

- Attracting younger buyers -

With the demise of the Baselworld salon following the Covid-19 pandemic, Watches and Wonders in Geneva has established itself as the chief display event for watchmaking in Switzerland.

Within less than five years, the number of exhibitors has almost doubled, with 2026 welcoming 11 new brands, including Audemars Piguet, a leading name in Swiss watchmaking.

The fair is "an important opportunity to interact with other brands, engage with the public, and showcase our expertise", the brand's managing director Ilaria Resta told AFP.

Inside the Palexpo convention centre, brands compete to show off their new products on lavish exhibitions.

Tag Heuer had Formula 1 racing cars, Van Cleef & Arpels featured delicate water lilies and reeds, while IWC went for space exploration.

Once reserved exclusively for industry professionals, the Geneva salon has gradually opened its doors to the public, turning into a platform for showcasing watchmaking expertise.

While the first four days are for the industry only, the weekend and Monday are open to the public, with organisers seeking to seduce a new generation of younger buyers.

Watchmaking is Switzerland's third-largest export sector, after pharmaceuticals and industry.

The sector suffered a blow during the pandemic, but bounced back quickly afterwards, breaking records for three consecutive years thanks to so-called "revenge purchases", with some consumers using the savings made during lockdowns to stock up on luxury watches.

But with a drop in demand in China, followed by US tariffs, the last two years have been tough for the sector.

Swiss watch exports first fell by 2.8 percent in 2024 and then by 1.7 percent in 2025, to 25.6 billion Swiss francs ($32.5 billion).

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