(The Center Square) – Ninety-nine days until Election Day, and 39 days until absentee ballots go in the mail, North Carolina remains steady with two nationally-watched toss-up races for Congress.
The U.S. Senate race between Democrat Roy Cooper and Republican Michael Whatley is a toss-up, according to renowned nonpartisan digital platform 270towin and a July 10-11 poll from Public Policy Polling. The 1st Congressional District race of incumbent Democratic Rep. Don Davis and Republican Laurie Buckhout is also a toss-up at 270towin.
The Cook Political Report, another respected nonpartisan political newsletter, “leans Democrat” for Cooper and “leans Republican” for Buckhout. The National Republican Congressional Committee, in early May, said Buckhout and Davis was a dead heat.
Statewide polls have trended with Cooper in front. They’ve also been within the margin of error, or a statistical tie, in the closely watched state Supreme Court election between incumbent Democratic Justice Anita Earls and former state Rep. Sarah Stevens.
Majority power in the Senate and House of Representatives figures to be impacted by each of the races in the Old North State. Republicans have 53 seats in the upper chamber, and 218 in the lower chamber where there are four vacancies and one independent formerly a Republican and still caucusing with them. At the 2024 election cycle, Republicans gained a 220-215 edge.
Each of the Tarheel State races has historical and trend factors, perhaps none more intriguing than the northeastern part of the state. That’s because it’s where Republicans have never done well and state lawmakers changed the congressional map to help last fall.
The last time the U.S. House representative in the northeastern part of the state was won by a Republican was the 1882 election. That was 71 U.S. House elections ago.
Beaufort, Hyde, Dare, Craven, Pamlico and Carteret counties change from the 3rd to the 1st Congressional District; Wilson, Wayne, Greene and Lenoir counties change from the 1st to the 3rd. The only district of 14 with closer than 13% difference in 2024 was a win by Davis over Buckhout by 1.7%.
Rep. Dr. Greg Murphy, R-N.C., is the third-term congressman from the 3rd Congressional District. Democrats didn’t even run an opponent against him two years ago; this year, they will. He’s “safe” in the 270towin analysis and “solid R” at Cook, the respective best grades at each.
Republicans are 5-for-5 in U.S. Senate races since losing to the late Kay Hagan in 2008. Democrats chase back to 1998 for the last time winning a Senate seat at the midterms. Yet Cooper, career politician since 1986, counters with statewide wins four times for attorney general and two for governor – all from 2000 to 2020.
Republicans in statewide races for this decade – 2020, 2022 and 2024 – are 32-10 against Democrats, a party with significantly declining voter registrations for more than 20 consecutive years.
In the state Supreme Court race, Stevens last month stepped down from serving District 90 in the North Carolina House to focus on her election. Earls has continued to campaign even amid her January announcement of a breast cancer diagnosis.
The race is pivotal to also shape the 2028 ballot. Republicans are in five of seven seats, and the ballot in two years will have the chief justice seat and seats 2 and 4. Occupying those spots, respectively, are Republicans Paul Newby, Phil Berger Jr. and Tamara Barringer.
This means if Stevens prevails, Democrats would need to sweep 2028 to gain a 4-3 majority. Justice Allison Riggs, winner 184 days after Election Day in 2024, is the other Democrat on the bench.
It was just eight years ago when Democrat Michael Morgan's win turned the Supreme Court majority to Democrats 4-3 just as Cooper stepped into the governor’s office. The courtroom was called upon several times when the Democrat disagreed with a General Assembly sporting GOP majority in each chamber.
Democrats held a 6-1 edge going into the 2020 election. In that one Democrats lost all three state Supreme Court races – Justice Paul Newby won one to elevate to chief justice, and Barringer and Berger joined the court. Democrats' advantage was still 4-3.
In 2022, Republicans won both races to gain a 5-2 majority. Allison Riggs’ win in 2024 kept it there, though the Democrat with hardly any bench experience appointed by Cooper had to survive a drawn-out litigation that meandered through the State Board of Elections decisions and court rulings at Wake County Superior Court, the state’s Court of Appeals and Supreme Court, and the 4th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals.
Absentee ballots go into the mail Sept. 4 – or five weeks from this coming Friday. North Carolinians will choose a U.S. senator, all 14 members of the U.S. House, and all 170 members of the General Assembly.
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