Biggest wave of pandemic will hit Ore. by January

The sixth wave of new infections comes as Oregon was slowly recovering from the delta surge that began last July and peaked in early September.

A forecast released by the Oregon Health & Science University said the new variant will push out the current dominant delta virus by the last week of December.

Peter Graven, the lead author of the OHSU forecast, said omicron doubles at twice the rate of the current delta variant, doubling the number of infections every two days.

“We have about two to three weeks before we’ll see omicron accelerate and become the dominant strain,” Graven said. “We expect that cases will ramp up quickly.”

The OHSU report said early studies in Europe show current vaccines and earlier exposure to the virus are not as effective against omicron as earlier variations of COVID-19.

The Pfizer and Moderna two-shot vaccination loses about 50% of its protective power with omicron. The third booster shot of Pfizer or Moderna vaccine, now authorized for anyone over age 16, offered significant additional protection.

The booster is especially needed for those most vulnerable to severe illness.

“I’m calling on one million Oregonians to step up and get a booster shot,” Brown said at the press conference.

While there is early evidence that omicron causes fewer cases of severe infection, the shear number of additional infections will create so many cases that it will exceed earlier waves of the virus. Hospitalizations could top 2,000 per day, swamping the state health care system at a time when other states are dealing with the same crisis and will be unable to lend assistance. to Oregon.

Graven said the number of infections will be somewhat mitigated by the expectation of lower case severity.