As state lawmakers ponder federal funding cuts, initiative advances that would end estate ta

Oregon’s estate tax generated $423 million in 2024–25, according to state figures. That was a big jump from $339 million the previous year. 

Democratic lawmakers will count on that money more than ever amid a slowing economy and federal budget cuts. 

During last week’s legislative days, Oregon’s nonpartisan Legislative Fiscal Office circulated the latest estimates of the impact of those cuts, which the office expects to total $15.1 billion in lost federal funds from 2025–27 through 2029–31. 

Nearly all (95%) of the cuts will come from two programs that benefit Oregonians with the lowest incomes: Medicaid and the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program. 

The hit gets much worse over time: LFO expects the cost of the cuts to be $1.03 billion in the 2025–27 budget cycle, $5.6 billion in 2027–2029, and $8.01 billion in 2029–31. 

“Donald Trump’s funding cuts and health care policies are putting Oregon on the road to disaster,” said Oregon House Speaker Julie Fahey (D-Eugene) on Oct. 3. “These policies will devastate Oregon families for years to come.” 

While Fahey and her legislative colleagues can do little to change federal policy, they also face a new threat to a key existing state revenue stream. 

On Sept. 30, Oregon Secretary of State Tobias Read released a certified ballot title for Initiative Petition 51: “Nullifies estate tax, which applies to estates of $1 million plus; prohibits similar local taxes.”

Currently, Oregon is one of just 12 states that levy an estate tax. That tax kicks in on estates worth $1 million or more, the lowest estate tax threshold of any state. The tax rate starts at 10% of the value and rises to 16% on estates worth more than $9.5 million. (Rhode Island, which increases its threshold with inflation — i.e., indexes it — has the second-lowest threshold, at $1.8 million.) 

State Rep. Kevin Mannix (R-Salem), a co-chief petitioner for IP 51, has long tried to end Oregon’s estate tax. In 2012, Mannix and his allies put Measure 84 on the ballot. That measure, which would have phased out the estate tax over four years, failed 54% to 46%. Since then, Mannix has chipped away at the issue, winning a victory in 2023 with a bill that created an exemption for natural resource (i.e., farm and forest) properties of $15 million. 

In 2025, lawmakers proposed a number of bills that would have increased the estate tax threshold or ended the tax. None passed. Progressive groups, such as Tax Fairness Oregon, have consistently opposed ending the estate tax, while many Republicans and business groups have supported raising the threshold or ending the tax. 

The certified ballot title Mannix and his supporters got last week mirrors the draft ballot title. In written comments on the draft title, Mannix and others protested the middle clause “which applies to estates of $1 million plus,” saying it “distorts the measure’s true scope and risks misinforming voters.” The appeal deadline for the certified ballot title is Oct. 14. 

If the End the Death Tax campaign decides to move forward with the initiative, it must gather 117,173 valid Oregon voter signatures to qualify for the November 2026 ballot.

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This story was produced by the Oregon Journalism Project (oregonjournalismproject.org), a nonprofit investigative newsroom for the state of Oregon.