Guest Commentary: Key legislative races in 2016

At this point, Democratic Gov. Kate Brown seems to have a clear shot at winning election in 2016 to the post she assumed in February after the resignation of John Kitzhaber.

To date, she hasn’t attracted any Democratic opponents, and a number of big-name Republicans have eyed the race and passed. (Only one Republican has entered the race so far: Salem oncologist Bud Pierce, who’s a political newcomer.)

We mean no disrespect to Pierce, who seems smart and engaged, but his candidacy highlights the difficulties that Republicans are having in terms of developing candidates with statewide appeal.

To be fair, Bill Currier, the chairman of the state Republican Party, told The Oregonian newspaper last week that the GOP would be fielding a candidate in every partisan race.

With forecasts calling for a relatively quiet gubernatorial race, it could be that state politics in 2016 will be dominated by a bumper crop of high-profile ballot measures and what could turn out to be a critical series of races for the Legislature.

We’ve written recently about the prospects for a 2016 ballot stuffed with initiatives. It wouldn’t surprise us to see record spending on those measures next year. (Remember that the spending on the state measure to label genetically modified foods set a record at about $28 million; that mark might be hard to top, but some 2016 measures might give it a run for its money.)

But the legislative races in 2016 also will be worth watching closely, for a couple of reasons.

First, as The Oregonian noted, state Republicans still are licking their wounds from the 2014 elections, when the GOP lost ground in the Legislature — even though it was a good election nationally for Republicans.

You can bet that Currier and company would love to regain some of that lost ground — and Republicans often fare better in local elections than they do statewide. But the GOP won’t be able to catch Democrats snoozing, and here’s why: As matters stand, Democrats hold 35 seats in the House, one shy of the two-thirds “supermajority” that’s required to pass revenue measures without the support of Republicans.

Democrats already hold that two-thirds advantage in the Senate, with 18 seats. (This is part of the reason why the 2014 election for Senate District 8 between Sara Gelser and Betsy Close was such a big deal and attracted so much money. And the lack of that one vote in the House was sufficient to derail a proposal to increase the state’s gas tax to fund a statewide transportation package.)

Those whisker-thin legislative margins could rise or fall depending on races in a dozen or so competitive districts across the state.

The bad news for mid-valley political junkies: Not one of those competitive districts in 2016 would appear to be in either reliably Republican Linn County or reliably Democratic Benton County.

But statewide, the results of those races could make a big difference in the 2017 Legislature — and for all of Oregon.