Somaliland's Israel deal could put Berbera port at risk

Berbera still handles far fewer containers than nearby Djibouti or Mombasa, but port traffic was up 30 percent from 2023 to 2025, and recent diplomatic moves could lead to much more. 

A deal under negotiation with Ethiopia, a landlocked neighbour with more than 130 million inhabitants, could see traffic rise by another 80 percent, said port authority director Ali Diriye Ahmed. 

Ethiopia did not respond to queries on the subject.

And Israel's recent decision to recognise Somaliland's independence -- the first country to do so since it declared autonomy from Somalia in 1991 -- promises a "tremendous increase", said Ahmed, already envisioning an expansion of the port. 

But an alliance with Israel also brings risks, particularly as the US-Israeli attacks on Iran this weekend increase the threat of regional war. 

Abdel Malek al-Houthi, leader of the Iran-backed Houthi rebel group in Yemen, had already warned that any Israeli presence in Somaliland would be considered a "military target". 

The UAE, which has already been targeted this weekend by Iranian missiles, not only runs Berbera port, but has a nearby military base that it has recently expanded. 

"We really don't know what is going on there. Sometimes there are 20 planes coming in a week," said a DP World employee, speaking on condition of anonymity.

Experts say the UAE was a key player in Israel's recognition of Somaliland, and it is possible that Israeli forces are already present in the Berbera military base. 

"There is a widespread assumption that there is an Israeli military or security presence that is already in the country," a Western diplomat told AFP on condition of anonymity, though any military cooperation will remain secretive. 

If their presence was confirmed at the Emirati base, it could leave the port vulnerable to Houthi or Iranian missiles. 

There is also a more local threat from Al-Shabaab, the Somali affiliate of Al-Qaeda, that has said it will oppose any attempt by Israel to use Somaliland. 

Somaliland authorities "only saw the recognition, without thinking about the future," fears Roland Marchal, a regional specialist based at France's Sciences Po university.

- 'Contribute to peace' -

Hargeisa initially denied any negotiations regarding an Israeli military base on its soil, only to recently indicate that "nothing is off the table".

"We are not partnering with Israel to be against anyone," said Khadar Hussein Abdi, Somaliland's minister of the presidency and advisor to President Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi. 

Somaliland "wants to contribute to peace in the region," he told AFP. 

In Berbera, a peaceful but little-developed city of 70,000, the atmosphere remains optimistic. 

Its mayor, Abdishakur Mohamoud Hassan, said population numbers and tax revenues had soared since DP World took control of the port, allowing for free primary schools and new health clinics. 

With Israel's recognition, "we expect this city to develop similarly to Dubai," he said with a smile, adding that he was "not afraid" of attacks by Israel's enemies. 

"If a country like Ukraine has been resisting Russia for years, we too will not be intimidated by the Houthis," he said.

bur-er/kjm