(The Center Square) - Seven critical races across the country will determine partisan control of the U.S. Senate in the midterm elections.
Most election forecasters agree control of the U.S. Senate could go either way. The Cook Political Report ranks Senate control as a “toss up” and Fox News power rankings say the battle is a "coin flip."
Republicans enter the midterm elections with a 53-47 majority in the U.S. Senate. Democrats must net four seats in the chamber to take the majority.
U.S. Senate races in Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio and Texas are all listed as toss ups, according to The Cook Political Report.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., has campaigned alongside candidates in key states across the country, including Iowa. He acknowledged the unpopular U.S. military conflict with Iran will likely do damage in electing Senate Republicans but he boasted of the chamber’s record over the last two years.
"Right now, short-term, you have the gas price issue," Thune said in an interview with CBS News. "But I think we have done the kinds of things that have set the economy up, and job creators up, for success. I think the conditions for growth are there."
Organizers for Democratic leaders in the Senate have touted optimism about the outcome of the Nov. 3 elections. Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, D-N.Y., who chairs the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, pointed to momentum for candidates in Maine, Michigan and Alaska, where Democrats have been accused of trying to fix the race.
“If Democrats take back the majority in November, we can change that. We can force a vote to revoke President [Donald] Trump’s tariffs and refund the money Americans have paid for them,” Gillibrand wrote on social media. “We can end the war in Iran. We can stop the corruption in Washington. And we can pass a budget that prioritizes working families.”
Here is a look into the key races to watch on Election Day.
Alaska
The race between incumbent Sen. Dan Sullivan, R-Alaska, and Democratic candidate Mary Peltola has been embroiled in controversy over allegations of planting a spoiler candidate in the race with Sullivan’s name.
Aside from the ballot controversy, Sullivan and Peltola disagree on key issues of taxation and federal benefits for Alaskans. Peltola pushed for abolishing income taxes on Alaskans making less than $92,000 per year and expanding the child tax credit.
Sullivan has supported legislation that would inform families of tax credit opportunities but did not endorse an expansion of the credit.
Peltola held a lead of 47.0% over Sen. Sullivan with 44.8%, according to an average of four most recent polls compiled by 270toWin. The polls also projected spoiler candidate Daniel J. Sullivan would earn 3.5% of the vote in an average of four polls.
Iowa
U.S. Rep. Ashley Hinson, R-Iowa, will face off against Iowa Sen. Josh Turek for a seat held by Sen. Joni Ernst, who announced she will not run for reelection.
The race has seen Hinson separate herself from President Doanld Trump amid rising prices and stress on agriculture seen by the U.S. military conflict in Iran. Turek has repeatedly slammed the Trump administration and called for an end to the conflict.
Hinson slightly leads Hinson with 45.8% support, according to an average of five most recent polls compiled by 270toWin. Turek garners 45.2% support.
Kansas
Incumbent U.S. Sen. Roger Marshall, R-Kansas, is looking to defend his seat against Democratic candidate Adam Hamilton, a pastor. The race between the candidates has tightened in the weeks leading up to Election Day.
The two candidates differed on support for the Trump administration’s tariff policies. Hamilton said he would work to repeal the policies and give Congress sole power to administer tariffs. Marshall has repeatedly supported the policies as a way to balance global trade relationships.
Hamilton leads Marshall 49% to 45.2%, according to an average of the five most recent polls compiled by 270toWin.
Maine
Incumbent U.S. Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine, is fighting to hold off Democrat Troy Jackson in a battle over the Trump administrations tariff policies, as well. Trump repealed 22 tariffs on Canada over certain goods central to Maine’s economy.
Collins has positioned herself as a distinct voice from Trump and remained critical of the president’s decisionmaking. Jackson repeatedly ties her voting record to Trump’s agenda and highlighted that she only disagrees on a vote when it is of no consequence.
Jackson leads 49% to 46.4% according to an average of five most recent polls compiled by 270toWin.
Michigan
Democrats must hold onto a seat in Michigan to make any chance of a majority happen, analysts say. Democratic socialist Abdul El-Sayed and Republican Mike Rogers are battling for the seat held by U.S. Sen. Gary Peters, D-Mich., in the upper chamber.
Concerns over candidate views on antisemitism and campaign priorities remain key issues ahead of the critical election. Jewish leaders have called on El-Sayed to agree with commitments on Jewish safety, identity, statehood and political participation following reports he solicited votes from Muslim mosques and Islamic centers whose leaders engage with extreme rhetoric against Israel.
El-Sayed leads Rogers 49.8% to 44%, according to the average of five most recent polls compiled by 270toWin.
Ohio
Sen. Jon Husted, R-Ohio, is looking to defend his seat from Democratic candidate Sherrod Brown, who lost his reelection bid in 2024. Concern over data centers and the cost of living has remained intense in the pivotal race.
Husted called for tax cuts to reduce inflation and lower costs for consumers, citing his vote for the One Big Beautiful Bill. Brown argued Republican tax cuts have driven up the cost of living and said he would vote against cuts for the wealthy and corporations.
Brown is leading Husted 48.3% to 44.8%, according to an average of the six most recent polls compiled by 270toWin.
Texas
The race between Democratic candidate James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton is key to control of the body. The two candidates are vying for Sen. John Cornyn’s seat in the Senate following his primary election loss to Paxton.
Paxton’s past impeachment over alleged corruption by the Texas legislature has remained persistent in attacks on the Republican, despite being acquitted by the Texas Senate. Talarico’s support for transgender surgery on minors and energy policy have remained key criticisms of his campaign by Paxton and Republicans.
Talarico leads Paxton with 49.6% support compared to 46.4%, according to an average of the eight most recent polls compiled by 270toWin.
For more information and updated election results on all of these races and more, visit thecentersquare.com/elections.
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