(The Center Square) - Billions of dollars of government spending over a decade have done nothing to stop homeownership from slipping out of reach for millions of Americans.
That's especially true for California.
And that's according to a report released Monday night, “Extreme Makeover: American Dream Edition?” The study by Open the Books, an organization that tracks government spending at the local, state and federal levels, examined public data from 2015 to 2024 to determine whether spending by the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development helped bridge the gap between Americans’ wages and increasing home prices.
The conclusion? It did not.
In fact, despite receiving $81.4 billion from HUD during 2015-2024, California remains one of the least affordable states to live in the U.S., according to Open the Books. Besides California, Open the Books tracked states across the nation, including Colorado, where home prices doubled during those years. Meanwhile, Nevada faces an affordability gap, but household incomes have grown in Arizona.
Christopher Neefus of Open the Books said Californians are looking at the better part of two decades of savings to get themselves into the average home.
Home prices grew at a rate 27% faster than the median income, Neefus, vice president of communications at Open the Books, told The Center Square during a phone interview. He added that although California's gap is among the lowest in the U.S., the figure is misleading because in 2015, the state was already seeing home prices exceeding the reach of the median income.
Home prices during 2015-2024 grew by more than 82% in the Golden State, Neefus said.
“Another factor to consider in California is that home prices started a lot higher and finished a lot higher than most of the country,” Neefus said.
The report also details California's multi-layered financing rules, expensive construction costs and strict single-family zoning that leaves thousands of affordable units unbuilt. Construction costs average up to $570,000 per unit for affordable housing.
Across the border in Nevada, the Silver State had one of the top 10 affordability gaps in the country.
This is driven by pandemic-era relocation trends. Neefus said price hikes "could be partly attributed to COVID flight."
“What we do see in Nevada’s case is that where taxpayers and potential homebuyers are heading, economic opportunity follows," he told The Center Square. "The state is among the top 10 when it comes to income growth over that decade, suggesting new opportunity may start to help close the affordability gap.”
“You’re looking at 150% of median pre-tax income that you would need to put down on an average home in the state,” said Neefus. “If you were to set aside 10% of your pre-tax income every year, which not everyone can afford to do, you’re still looking at 15 years of working to save."
As in California, local policies have made the economy difficult in parts of Nevada, Neefu said.
“Another piece of the puzzle in Nevada is it is home to a major tourist destination in Las Vegas,” said Neefus. He added that Clark County, where Las Vegas is located, has made it difficult to get approval for short-term rentals, which homeowners rely on to defray costs.
Neefus said the county's bureaucracy is siding with hotel chains over homeowners.
The neighboring state of Arizona experienced an influx of Americans headed out of major cities during the COVID-19 era and had a high affordability gap. However, Neefus said the Grand Canyon state was also No. 2 in the nation for growth in median household income.
“That suggests the sort of economic dynamism that can be reparative in the future,” said Neefus.
Elsewhere, Colorado is a state that is closer to the middle of the pack, but one that still highlights the broader national reach of the U.S. housing crisis. For example, while Colorado’s 49-point affordability gap was modest compared to Idaho or Florida, home prices in the Centennial State still doubled over the 10-year period that Open the Books examined.
“In Colorado, if you keep setting aside 10% of that median income before taxes, it is a 17-year wait to put a strong down payment on an average home there,” said Neefus. “This is a politically moderate state for the most part, so this could be one of the bellwether states to watch over the next several years.”
To solve affordability problems, Open the Books said, officials at various levels should address local zoning restrictions, regulations on permits and inflationary federal spending.
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