Japan's first woman PM tipped for thumping election win

The arch-conservative Takaichi, 64, a heavy metal drummer in her youth and an admirer of Margaret Thatcher, became Japan's fifth premier in as many years in October.

This followed a string of calamitous elections for the once-mighty Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), leaving it short of a majority in both houses of parliament.

With ordinary Japanese, especially younger ones, Takaichi has got off to a flier, becoming something of a fashion icon and a hit on social media.

"It's not just because she's a woman... overall, it's because she championed the idea of a society where the people can have hope for the future," high-school student Makoto Hara, 17, told AFP.

Her tough talk on immigration appears, for now, to have snuffed out the rise of the populist "Japanese first" Sanseito party.

"The words she uses are easy to understand," Mikitaka Masuyama, professor of Japanese politics at the National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies (GRIPS), told AFP.

Her predecessor Shigeru Ishiba "had lots of thoughts inside himself, but he spoke like an academic". 

Despite dipping in recent weeks, her cabinet has enjoyed approval ratings of around 70 percent, much higher than previous administrations.

Surveys ahead of Sunday's lower house election indicate -- with some caution due to undecided voters -- that the LDP will easily win more than the 233 seats needed to regain a majority.

The ruling bloc of the LDP and its coalition partner Japan Innovation Party (JIP) could surpass 300 seats out of 465 up for grabs, giving it a two-thirds majority.

The new Centrist Reform Alliance of the main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP) and the LDP's previous partner Komeito could lose half their current 167 seats.

- Loose cannon -

But how relations with China might develop is an open question.

Before becoming premier Takaichi was a regular at the Yasukuni shrine, a flashpoint site honouring Japan's war dead that has long been a thorn in regional ties.

Barely two weeks in office, Takaichi suggested that Japan would intervene military if China sought to take self-ruled Taiwan by force.

China has never ruled democratic Taiwan, but Beijing claims Taiwan as part of its territory and has not ruled out force to annex it.

With Takaichi having days earlier pulled out all the stops to welcome US President Donald Trump, Bejing's reaction to the unscripted remarks was furious.

It summoned Tokyo's ambassador, warned its citizens against visiting Japan and conducted joint air drills with Russia around the archipelago. 

Last month, Japan's two remaining pandas -- animals long used by Beijing as diplomatic tools -- were even returned to China.

Yee Kuang Heng, a professor in international security at the University of Tokyo, said however that tensions with China might in fact ease if the election bolsters Takaichi.

"Beijing recognises strength and could calculate that she has more staying power than anticipated and had not buckled under pressure, and therefore will have to somehow deal with her," Heng told AFP.

- Yields -

Takaichi's economic policies, including a $135-billion stimulus package, have also worried investors, with bond yields rising and the yen seesawing.

Japan already has the biggest ratio of debt to gross domestic product (GDP) among major economies, expected to exceed 230 percent in the current fiscal year.

Last month, yields on long-term Japanese bonds hit record highs after Takaichi pledged to exempt food from an eight-percent consumption tax to ease the pain of inflation on households.

She caused further unease last weekend by talking up the benefits of a weak yen, even though her finance minister has repeatedly said Tokyo would act to support the currency.

Abhijit Surya at Capital Economics said however that he was not worried that Takaichi would be "fiscally profligate".

"In the event that the government did attempt to play fast and loose with the public finances, we would expect bond markets to put it in check," the economist said.

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