Democrat holds narrow lead in Minnesota U.S. Senate race

There is a wider gap in the Minnesota gubernatorial race, with Democrat U.S. Sen. Amy Klobuchar leading Republican state House Speaker Lisa Demuth by two to seven percentage points in recent polling.

Minnesota voters have already begun casting absentee ballots for the 2026 general election across a wide slate of races.

This year, the entire Legislature is on the ballot, along with races for U.S. Senate, U.S. House, governor, lieutenant governor, attorney general, secretary of state and state auditor. There is also one ballot measure on the ballot.

According to the Cook Political Report, the Minnesota U.S. Senate race is predicted to be likely Democrat. It is expected to be one of the bellwether races set to determine the balance of congressional power.

Of the 100 seats in the U.S. Senate, 33 are up for regular election in 2026, along with two special elections. Democrats currently hold 13 of the seats on the ballot, while Republicans hold 22. That means this election cycle will determine which party controls the 120th Congress.

A Republican candidate has not won a U.S. Senate seat in Minnesota since 2002. Tafoya hopes to be the first, labeling herself a political outsider.

“Minnesotans are rejecting Peggy Flanagan’s record of failure,” she said. “Gang violence. Rampant fraud. Declining test scores. All on her watch as lieutenant governor. It’s time for an outsider.”

Flanagan, who has served alongside Gov. Tim Walz since 2018, is running amid ongoing concerns over fraud in the state.

“Peggy Flanagan stood beside Tim Walz for eight years while Minnesota suffered billions in taxpayer dollars lost to fraud, a free-fall in academic performance, and rising crime,” Tafoya said. “Now she wants a promotion to the U.S. Senate. Eight years of failure doesn’t deserve a promotion.”

Flanagan has called out Tafoya for supporting President Donald Trump, calling her a “yes vote” for him if elected.

“We have a choice, Minnesota,” Flanagan said. “Do you want a senator who will work for you to lower costs, end the illegal war in Iran, and hold ICE accountable? Or do you want another senator for Trump?”

Healthcare access is another priority for Flanagan.

“Michele Tafoya said she’ll 'protect' Trump’s big, ugly bill in the Senate,” Flanagan said. “I’m going to fight to restore the cuts to Medicaid and SNAP – the same programs that saved my life as a kid.”