Oregon Journalism Project: Oregon’s aging population poses challenges for economic revival

Oregon now has the nation’s 11th-oldest population, and more Oregonians in their prime earning years move out of state than comparable newcomers move in. 

Oregon’s median age has now climbed to 40.4, according to recent U.S. Census Bureau data. 

The state’s two oldest counties are Central Oregon’s Wheeler County (59.3 years) and coastal Curry County (57.7 years).

Older people earn and spend less than younger people, tending to drag down local economies, according to state chief economist Carl Riccadonna. Areas with disproportionately older populations are at risk of a “feedback loop,” he says: Funding and resources get focused on services for older citizens (who also vote at higher rates), which can lead to dwindling resources for public education and child care. This scenario can discourage younger people from moving into a region, Riccadonna says.

“If left unchecked, that can continue to intensify,” he says.

The two youngest counties in the state are Benton County (34.5 years), home to Oregon State University, and Malheur County (36.1 years).

Younger counties benefit from the “economic dynamism” of their population, Riccadonna says.

Economic dynamism is the ability of a community or region to adapt to a changing world, such as innovations in AI and social media, he explains.

“As we move towards a more service-oriented economy, as traditional business models are upended, more dynamic regions are going to be able to adapt to that more successfully,” he says.

Malheur County’s director of economic development, Taylor Rembowski, was surprised to learn his county was the state’s second youngest. The county’s job market is largely made up of entry-level manufacturing, agricultural and labor-intensive jobs, he says.

High school graduates who leave Malheur County for college are typically reluctant to move back.

“We don't have a large, diverse workforce or economy here, and so if you do go grab that college degree, the likelihood of coming home and getting a good job is pretty low,” Rembowski says.

Another reason for the younger Malheur population, he says: Many retirees move to the nearby Boise, Idaho, region, where the cost of living is lower than in Oregon and there are more options for senior and nursing homes.

Rembowski is eager to help attract more diverse, high-paying jobs to Ontario, Nyssa, Vale and other parts of Malheur County.

“That way, somebody could move to the area, afford a home, and provide more for our local economy, whether that's the restaurants or the local stores,” he says.

Rembowski’s goals align with the Prosperity Council’s, Riccadonna says.

“If you build the economy, the younger workers will show up,” he says.

READ MORE: New Census Data Shows Oregon Is Losing Residents in Their Prime Earning Years—Due in Part to Costly Housing

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This story was produced by the Oregon Journalism Project (oregonjournalismproject.org), a nonprofit investigative newsroom for the state of Oregon.