(The Center Square) – With five days to go until the midterm elections, polling suggests Arizona’s Gov. Katie Hobbs will stick around for another four years.
That’s the takeaway from multiple polls that show the Democratic incumbent opening her lead over U.S. Rep. Andy Biggs, R-Gilbert, with Cook Political Report’s latest batch of gubernatorial polls upgrading the race from “Lean Democratic” to “Likely Democratic.”
Elsewhere, Thursday’s aggregate polling update from MSNOW and data partner FiftyPlusOne show Hobbs, a former Arizona secretary of state and state Senate minority leader, holding a +8 lead over Biggs, sitting at 49.3% to 41.8% for her Republican challenger.
On Thursday, Jessica Taylor of Cook Political Report said Biggs’ efforts in the race have drawn more questions than answers, leaving the party’s biggest backers to stay clear of the race entirely.
“Arizona Gov. Katie Hobbs began the cycle as Democrats’ most endangered incumbent,” Taylor said in her latest polling update. “But national Republicans have never been impressed by the race Rep. Andy Biggs has run here, and apart from the Arizona-based Turning Point USA, national GOP groups haven’t invested here.
“A HighGround survey this week showed her up by 12 points, 52%-39%, and the margin may not be that large, but she should comfortably win.”
Making moves
To Taylor’s point, the Arizona Secretary of State campaign finance page shows that Hobbs’ campaign has raised nearly three times as much ($15.044 million) as Biggs ($5.7 million) with Election Day approaching.
Hobbs’ late surge speaks to her appeal across Arizona’s complicated political landscape, said Thom Reilly, a professor and the co-director of the Center for an Independent and Sustainable Democracy at Arizona State University in Tempe.
“Hobbs has the advantages of incumbency and an established fundraising operation, while Biggs has a different political and ideological profile,” Reilly told The Center Square.
Earlier this year, President Donald Trump endorsed Biggs, describing him as a "steadfast Trump ally." The candidate also received endorsements from two former Arizona governors, Republicans Jan Brewer and Doug Ducey.
“Biggs' record in Congress and his close alignment with the MAGA wing of the Republican Party make him a more explicitly partisan candidate, which could be a consideration for independent and moderate voters," Reilly said.
“Voters also have Hobbs's record as governor to evaluate alongside Biggs's congressional record,” he added.
Mike Noble, founder and CEO of Noble Predictive Insights, told The Center Square that the state’s history of thin voting margins means that writing off either candidate at this point could be a fool’s errand.
"Arizona is still Arizona,” Noble told The Center Square. “Cook's rating reflects the advantage Gov. Hobbs has shown in public polling, but let's not forget this is a state where statewide elections have been decided by razor-thin margins. A polling lead and an Election Day result are two very different things."
Independents swing elections
As of Friday morning, Noble’s firm has Hobbs up six points on Biggs, sitting with 51% support to 45% for her opponent and putting her just outside the 4.34% margin of error.
When it comes to polling in Arizona, Noble’s experience is that the state’s electorate tends to go as its largest voting bloc do.
Noble cited that bloc as the turning point in this year’s midterms, with Hobbs holding a 62%-to-32% lead among independent voters in Friday’s polling update.
"The biggest challenge for Republicans in Arizona isn't necessarily the size of their base. It's what happens with independents,” Noble said. “You can have more registered Republicans than Democrats, but if you're losing independents by double digits, that advantage can disappear pretty quickly."
Arizona’s sizable independent voter base can produce skewed results, though, Noble said, with Arizonans frequently splitting their ticket or moving between parties depending on what’s happening at the time of the election.
"One thing people often overlook about Arizona is how willing voters are to split their tickets,” Noble said. “Just because a voter supported Trump in 2024 doesn't automatically mean they're voting Republican for governor in 2026.
“Arizona voters have repeatedly demonstrated that they're willing to evaluate candidates individually, regardless of party," he added.
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