Poll: Democrats hold slight edge over Rogers in Michigan U.S. Senate race

The poll comes as El-Sayed continues to hold a narrow lead in the Democrat primary. According to an average of recent polls compiled by 270toWin, El-Sayed leads the Democrat field with 29.5% support, followed by Stevens at 26.5%.

TIPP's latest poll, however, showed Stevens leading the Democrat primary, receiving 35% support compared to 31% for El-Sayed and 13% for McMorrow.

Stevens’ campaign applauded polling, which was conducted for the League of American Workers.

“These new numbers underscore Haley’s growing momentum in the race as she continues to build support across Michigan and earn backing from some of the state’s most respected Democratic leaders,” it said in a statement following the poll’s release.

While El-Sayed currently leads the average of recent Democrat primary polling, he appears to be the party's weakest general election candidate against Rogers.

In the TIPP poll, Stevens led Rogers 48% to 41%, while McMorrow led Rogers 45% to 42%. El-Sayed held the narrowest advantage, leading Rogers 43% to 42%.

Averages of the three most recent general election polls show a similarly tight race. Stevens leads Rogers 43% to 42.3%, while McMorrow trails Rogers 42.3% to 42.7%. El-Sayed trails Rogers by the widest margin of the three Democrat candidates, 41.3% to 43%.

Michigan voters will elect one member to the U.S. Senate on Nov. 3. The primary is scheduled for Aug. 4. The race will fill the seat currently held by U.S. Sen. Gary Peters, who announced in January 2025 that he will not seek reelection.

Peters, a Democrat, said at the time that after decades in public office, he was ready to step aside and “turn over the reins.”

The election for the open seat is expected to draw national attention. Michigan remains one of the most closely-divided states politically, and is often seen as a bellwether for election outcomes nationally.

In 2024, the state's U.S. Senate race was decided by less than half a percentage point, when U.S. Sen. Elissa Slotkin narrowly defeated Rogers.

On the Republican side, the party leadership and funding is rallying around Rogers, who is seeking a return to Washington after previously serving in the U.S. House.

The outcome of Michigan's Senate race will play a role in determining which party controls the 120th Congress. Of the 100 seats in the U.S. Senate, 33 are up for regular election in 2026, along with two special elections. Democrats currently hold 13 of the seats on the ballot, while Republicans hold 22.

Funding is already flowing into the race on both sides of the aisle. In April, a Republican super PAC announced it was committing $45 million to back Rogers in his bid for the seat.

During its announcement, the Senate Leadership Fund expressed optimism about Rogers' chances, pointing to his 2024 performance, when he came within roughly 19,000 votes of winning the seat, and arguing that Michigan represents a top pickup opportunity for Republicans.

“Senate Leadership Fund’s historic investment is a testament to the strength of Mike Rogers and our commitment to flipping Michigan red in November,” said SLF Executive Director Alex Latcham. “Mike is a trusted leader who will fight for Michigan’s working families and auto industry, and we are confident he will be the next United States Senator from Michigan.”

Federal Election Commission filings show all four candidates have raised millions of dollars as the race ramps up.

Through March 31, Stevens led Democrat candidates in fundraising with $8.87 million raised and $3.39 million cash on hand. McMorrow reported $8.62 million raised and $3.69 million cash on hand, while El-Sayed reported $7.65 million raised and $2.53 million cash on hand.

Rogers reported $7.62 million raised and the largest cash reserve in the field, with $4.21 million on hand.

The TIPP survey was conducted May 20-23 among 1,456 registered Michigan voters and has a credibility interval of plus or minus 2.7%.