(The Center Square) – As Silver State residents head to the polls, it appears that the race for Nevada’s top office will come down to the wire.
That’s the takeaway from multiple pollsters, who have Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo and state Attorney General, Aaron Ford, a Las Vegas Democrat, in a virtual dead-heat entering Tuesday.
In Friday afternoon’s last batch of polling updates, Noble Predictive Insights has Lombardo and Ford tied at 47%, with 4% of Nevada voters undecided. The latest aggregate figures from MSNOW and data firm FiftyPlusOne, meanwhile, show Ford with the slimmest of leads, holding a 46.3%-to-45.6% advantage over the incumbent.
The Center Square reached out to Lombardo and Ford, but did not get a response from either before publication time.
Where race stands
Mike Noble, founder and CEO of Noble Predictive Insights, told The Center Square that Lombardo’s popularity among Nevada voters is a unique boon for him this cycle.
The longtime political pollster cited Lombardo's ability to hold his ground in an election cycle where Democrats hold substantial polling leads in the lieutenant governor’s (+7 percentage points in favors of Democrats, per Noble’s polling), attorney general (+8 Democratic) and secretary of state (+13 Democratic), as a unique calling card for him in 2026.
"What's fascinating about Nevada is that voters appear to be separating Joe Lombardo from the broader Republican Party,” Noble said. “He's holding more of his Republican base, remaining more competitive with independents and even attracting support from voters who disapprove of President Trump.
“That's a coalition the other Republican statewide candidates simply aren't matching right now,” he added.
Polling observations
Noble said Lombardo’s ability to serve the state well and build his own brand unique of the party has helped Lombardo weather the polling drag that come along with what political commentators expect to be a “blue wave” election better than others.
He cited Lombardo’s 89% approval rating among Republican voters (well above the others in statewide races on the GOP side, who are between 77% and 84%, by comparison), along with his narrow deficit against Ford among the state’s independent voting bloc (where he trails Ford, 45%-to-39%), as key elements of his strong reelection campaign.
Add that all up with Lombardo’s job approval rating (47% among voters overall) outranking President Donald Trump’s (42%) in the Silver State, and you have the recipe for a tight race, Noble said.
“Lombardo has managed to make this race more about himself than the national political environment,” Noble said, “and that's a big reason why the governor's race is a dead heat while Democrats are leading the other statewide contests."
So far, Noble’s polling has shown that Ford leads among voters who have already voted by 13 points, while Lombardo has a strong lead (+12 points) among those who say they haven’t voted yet, helping explain the razor-thin margins in the race.
Lombardo's staying power
Thom Reilly, former chancellor of the Nevada System of Higher Education and former county manager for Clark County (home to Las Vegas), told The Center Square that Lombardo’s name-brand recognition helps him during this year’s race.
“Lombardo is not generally identified with the MAGA wing of the Republican Party,” Reilly told The Center Square. “He has tried to navigate his relationship with Trump, at times distancing himself from the president while avoiding alienating Trump's supporters.
"That balancing act may help explain his ability to maintain support beyond the Republican base,” he added.
That, along with the perks of incumbency, which include things like name recognition, having an established political organization and a sizable bankroll to work with, are among the tools that Reilly said Lombardo has at his disposal in 2026.
Reilly served alongside Lombardo on the transition team for then-governor elect Steve Sisolak, a Democrat, in 2018, when Reilly was the chancellor of the Nevada System of Higher Education and Lombardo was the Clark County sheriff.
That experience helped him get an insight into Lombardo’s staying power in the polls, Reilly said, with Lombardo building the coalition of support that eventually led him to the governor’s mansion in 2022.
“What makes this race particularly interesting is that the broader political environment appears more favorable to Democrats, yet Lombardo has retained enough support beyond the Republican base to keep the contest competitive in the polls,” Reilly said. “Lombardo’s advantages as an incumbent, his ability to attract independent voters, and regional turnout patterns, help explain why the governor’s race remains so competitive while other statewide races show larger Democratic leads.”
Ford's advantages
Noble told The Center Square that Ford holds a sizable advantage over Lombardo on topics like housing affordability, while also holding a six-point edge (45% to 39%) among registered independent voters.
“Both candidates have areas of strength, which helps explain why neither has been able to pull away,” Noble said.
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