Mortgage Rates Flatten, but They’re Already Higher Than July’s Average

This is also 13 basis points higher than July’s monthly average of 6.5%. Mortgage rates gradually increased throughout the month, beginning at 6.28% on July 1 and ending at 6.7% on July 31.

What mortgage rates did this week

Lowest average daily rate: 6.47%

Over the past five days, the lowest average APR was 6.47% on Thursday, Aug. 6, according to Zillow data. This was a 12-basis-point drop from the previous day’s average.

Rates fell after national payroll processor ADP released its July data, which showed that real private sector job growth (44,000 additions) was weaker than forecasted (75,000 additions, as reported by Dow Jones).

Mortgage lenders are thinking about how July’s job data will be interpreted by central bankers. Futures traders have been expecting that the Federal Reserve might rein in inflation by raising borrowing rates in September. However, doing so can put more pressure on the labor market and drive up unemployment.

If Friday’s jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics upholds the downward trend seen in ADP’s release, the odds of a rate hike could fall further for September — and mortgage rates with them.

Highest average daily rate: 6.7%

According to Zillow data, the highest average APR reported over the past five days was 6.7% on Tuesday, Aug. 4.

This was on par with where rates ended the last week of July.

Throughout last month, mortgage rates trended higher when fighting and tensions escalated in Iran. The highest average daily rate reading for the whole month was 6.75% on July 27, the day after the U.S. completed 13 consecutive nights of strikes on Iranian targets. Rates then began to fall once the attacks were paused.

What mortgage rates could do next week

Next week we’ll get the Consumer Price Index, a key indicator of inflation. Current federal inflation data is from June, before the ceasefire in Iran crumbled. July’s data will give us our first real look at the economic effects of the resumed attacks.

Analysts will be looking at this data in relation to Friday’s jobs report. Odds of a rate hike in September will likely drop if unemployment is rising, but inflation isn’t as bad as some fear. The odds could also fall if both inflation and unemployment are relatively flat.

Either scenario would likely bring lower mortgage rates next week.

On the other hand, odds of a rate hike in September will likely increase if unemployment is manageable, but inflation is rising faster than expected. Rising odds of a September rate hike would push mortgage rates up.

If unemployment and inflation are both rising, it will be harder to gauge central bankers’ potential rate decision just yet.

One thing to keep in mind here: July’s data is backwards-looking, and mortgage lenders are always looking to the future. Any news from Iran will also sway rates day-to-day — potentially running counter to how we’d expect rates to react to the economic data alone.

How borrowers can get the lowest rate

While it’s impossible to time the market to get the lowest rate, there are certain predictable patterns that can guide your strategy.

For example, news from Iran that points to a possible peace agreement tends to lead to lower mortgage rates the next day. If you’re hearing positive rumblings, it could be a good time to apply.

Timing is only part of the equation, though. You should also shop around with multiple lenders to compare term options and find the lowest rate. We recommend getting quotes from at least three lenders.

And if the rates you’re seeing are just not in your budget right now, you can make the most of this time by focusing on tightening up your financial profile. By paying down existing debts and working on your credit health, you’ll be in a better position to score a good deal once rates come down.

The article Mortgage Rates Flatten, but They’re Already Higher Than July’s Average originally appeared on NerdWallet.