From Oregon Journalism Project: Kotek takes commanding lead over Drazan in early election returns

“People are jubilant,” said Chris Pair, a Democratic political strategist.

Oregon Democrats gathered at the Portland hotel, hoping that Gov. Tina Kotek could hitch a ride on that wave, rather than getting dragged under by the litany of woes the city and the state have failed to overcome during her first term. 

By 8:45 p.m., elections officials said 1.3 million votes, or nearly 42% of the electorate, had been counted and Kotek held a comfortable 7.1% lead over her Republican challenger, state Sen. Christine Drazan (R-Canby).

That early count showed Kotek up by 4 to 1 over Drazan in Multnomah County. Kotek also built an early lead in Drazan’s home county of Clackamas, which the Republican nominee won in 2022. 

“I’m surprised, given that the polling was so close,” said state Sen. Khanh Pham (D-Portland). 

The initial release of statewide results was immediately followed by perhaps the biggest national news of the night: “Democrats, we have flipped Texas blue,” Democratic Party of Oregon Chair Nathan Soltz told the crowd. 

In Hillsboro, Drazan gathered a crowd of about 300 supporters, united in the hope that the Canby lawmaker could overcome the tightly disciplined Democratic machine that has won every Oregon governor’s race since 1982. 

Abba’s “Dancing Queen” blared through the cavernous hangar storage space at the Hillsboro Airport, where Drazan’s supporters gathered for her election night party. A giant American flag hung behind the stage, and Drazan posed for photos and embraced supporters and fellow lawmakers.

Dan Mason, a Republican National Committee official for Oregon, was optimistic at first that Drazan could take the governor’s mansion. 

“Drazan has run a very stable campaign that appeals to independents and soft Democrats that we have been unable to attract in years past,” he said. A few minutes later, the first round of results were released.

“Looks like Oregon has followed the national tide in larger numbers than expected,” Mason said. 

As election coverage continued on the projector screen, supporters alternately booed and cheered as news across the nation unfolded. The Republican crowd seemed undeterred when early results showed Drazan trailing Kotek by 123,000 votes. The crowd cheered when coverage turned to Montana and announced that Republican Troy Downing was expected to win a U.S. House seat there. 

But by 8:45 p.m., Drazan supporters began trickling out of the party, subdued. Drazan was no longer mingling with the crowd. 

At 9:15 p.m., the Rolling Stones’ “Satisfaction” was playing, and the crowd had dwindled significantly. Election coverage was gone from the projector. Instead, a slide show of Drazan campaign images flashed across the screen. 

Although many election analysts had predicted a national Democratic wave Tuesday night, polling of the Oregon governor’s race suggested Kotek might be in trouble. One survey placed her approval ratings at about the same as President Donald Trump’s.

The Cook Political Report, a respected national publication, put it this way in a final update before Tuesday’s election: “Oregon’s gubernatorial race is one of the rare races moving in Republicans’ direction despite the national climate.” 

Drazan had hoped to follow in the footsteps of the last member of her party to hold that office. Republican Vic Atiyeh lost to Democrat Bob Straub in the post-Watergate midterms of 1974, only to drub the incumbent Straub in a 1978 rematch by 10 points. Atiyeh then won reelection in 1982. 

Drazan focused her campaign on Kotek’s record — and the state’s lack of progress on housing, mental health and education, the three areas Kotek promised to improve after she won in 2022. 

Kotek spent much of the $22 million her campaign raised on ads that tied Drazan to the president.

U.S. Sen. Jeff Merkley (D-Ore.), who was reelected handily Tuesday night, summed up the evening for the Democratic faithful at the Hilton. 

“We are saying ‘hell no!’ to Trump tonight,” Merkley said. 

At 9:25 p.m., Kotek took the stage, beaming. “I am proud to stand here as your next governor,” she said. “We have four more years together.” 

In a speech that lasted less than 10 minutes, Kotek made it clear she would pursue the same strategy that won her reelection: focusing on Oregonians’ intense dislike of the president. If Trump wants to take away Oregonians’ health care or their right to abortion or hand out more tax breaks to the wealthy, Kotek said, “we’re going to fight back.” 

At 10 p.m., Drazan took to the stage to address supporters in a speech that also lasted less than 10 minutes.  

She said although Kotek had declared victory, she was not ready to concede. 

“All the votes haven’t been counted, and I am continuing to pray for a victory,” she added. 

The crowd cheered and supporters waved campaign signs. 

“We will not go quietly. This place deserves a fight. This place deserves for us to continue to stand up. This place deserves for us to win,” Drazan said.

She said Kotek’s campaign made the race about national politics while hers was “hopeful and optimistic and visionary.” 

As the last of Drazan’s supporters filtered out and gold and red pom-poms were collected from empty tables, Journey’s “Don't Stop Believing" played. (While no local outlet had called the race by 10:25 p.m., CNN and CBS News both declared Kotek the winner.) 

At the Hilton, Felisa Hagins, executive director of the statewide council for Service Employees International Union, a top Kotek supporter, said she wasn’t surprised at the governor’s apparent comfortable victory. “It’s all about turnout,” Hagins said. “And turnout drives the margin.”

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This story was produced by the Oregon Journalism Project (oregonjournalismproject.org), a nonprofit investigative newsroom for the state of Oregon.