Swalwell's exit leaves uncertainty in gubernatorial race

Gov. Gavin Newsom has been in office since 2019 and is term-limited. The Democratic governor's last day in office will be in early January 2027.

Many Democrats and Republicans want to succeed Newsom, but to do so, they must survive the so-called jungle primary in California.

Roxanne Hoge, chair of the Republican Party of Los Angeles County, has another term for the big event.

“It’s an open scrum,” Hoge told The Center Square.

The two candidates who receive the most support - regardless of party affiliation - in the June 2 primary will advance to the Nov. 3 general election. While it is possible for two people of the same party to survive the primary and make the general election, California’s gubernatorial races have featured a Democrat and a Republican in the general election since the jungle primaries began in 2014.

This year’s primary features 61 gubernatorial candidates: 24 Democrats, 12 Republicans, one Libertarian, one Peace and Freedom Party member, and 23 individuals who cite no party preference. That's according to the list of candidates from the California Secretary of State's Office. Despite Swalwell quitting the race, his name remains on the ballot because his decision came after the deadline to withdraw.

In recent months, two Republicans, Steve Hilton and Chad Bianco, have been polling ahead of all of the Democrats for governor. The vote is more fragmented among the eight most prominent Democratic candidates. That led to speculation that Democrats could be shut out for the first time from the general election, but Swalwell's exit raises the possibility that another Democrat can pick up enough votes to qualify for the Nov. 3 ballot.

Hilton is an author, tech entrepreneur and former Fox News Channel host who has the backing of President Donald Trump. Bianco is the sheriff of Riverside County and, like Hilton, is a Trump supporter. They had more support than any Democrat in a recent University of California, Berkeley poll.

Tom Steyer and Katie Porter are the two Democrats with the most support now that Swalwell dropped out of the race and resigned from the U.S. House amid sexual assault allegations. Swalwell, who tied with Porter as the Democrat with the most support in the UC Berkeley poll, represented the East Bay area near San Francisco in Congress.

Rusty Hicks, chair of the California Democratic Party, said it remains to be seen who will get a boost in numbers from Swalwell’s supporters.

“The dust has to settle for a minute,” Hicks told The Center Square. “I think many voters are just beginning to tune in and pay attention, and we’re probably 15, 20 days away from ballots being in the hands of voters, so we hope to have some data and some research next week that should give us some sense as to what the current status of the race is.”

Porter is a former U.S. House member who represented Southern California's Orange County. Steyer is a billionaire philanthropist who financed the successful campaign to pass congressional redistricting in California, and he is seen in daily TV commercials.

California GOP Chair of Chairs John Dennis said the Golden State has not done well under Democrats.

He said he thinks voters ought to give Republicans such as Hilton and Bianco a chance.

“California went from having a surplus to having tens of billions of dollars in deficit every year as far as the eye can see,” Dennis told The Center Square. “Schools have gone from first to 47^th in the country. Crime is at its highest level around the state since anyone can remember. So either one of those guys would address those issues.”

Dennis added that affordability doesn’t seem to be as big a problem in states run by red governments.

“So those are the kinds of issues they can address, and I think, bring a different perspective to Sacramento,” said Dennis.

This is why Hoge is urging the people of California this year to “vote different.”

In Hoge’s opinion, California has not gotten good results from any elected Democrat in 20 years.

“The places where Democrats run everything - L.A., San Francisco - the streets are filthy, and the crime is so baked in the cake that people don't even report it anymore,” said Hoge. “They have proven that they can't run a lemonade stand. And so I would say to everyone who would like to deal with the top issues on the minds of most Californians, which are affordability and public safety, that they choose someone who's going to fix both of those problems, and that someone will be a Republican.”

Hicks said he thinks it is important that the governorship stays in the hands of Democrats. 

He noted it’s important not only for California, but other states as well.

“When we have what we have in the White House and amongst congressional Republicans in Washington, D.C., impacting Americans across the nation, it's important here in California to have leadership that stands up and pushes back, stands up for democracy, stands up for Californians,  and in many ways, all Americans,” said Hicks. “So now more than ever before, it’s important that we elect a Democrat as governor in 2026.”

Hicks dismissed Trump’s endorsement of Hilton, saying it may give the candidate a “slight bump with a dramatically dwindling voter base” in California.

“Essentially, you have Steve Hilton, who has the gift of gab and can run his mouth about a host of issues. And you have an all hat, no cattle sheriff who only wants to pretend to be tough, much like the con man in the White House,” said Hicks.

"All hat, no cattle" means "all talk, no action."

“So, you know, Republicans don’t exactly have the best choices," Hicks said.

As for Democrats supporting a billionaire in Steyer while they speak out against billionaires nationwide, Hoge said: “They are desperate, and they’ve always been hypocrites.”

There is one thing on which party officials agree: California needs to be successful, and the U.S. will benefit from the state's gains.

“A well-functioning California changes the world,” said Dennis. “Technology is driven here. And if you look at the way the things that people do and what they focus on today versus what they did 20, 30 years ago, their lifestyles have been dramatically altered by the innovation that came out of California.”

Dennis warned that California will not be able to hold that position if it continues its policies of attacking wealth creation and innovation.

“New ecosystems for tech innovation could pop up anywhere, so you need to root for California because you're rooting for a prosperous America and a better planet,” said Dennis.

Hicks pointed out that California is the fourth largest economy in the world. Its agricultural industry feeds the nation, while technology and advancements also benefit the rest of the country, he said.

“As the old saying goes, ‘The future comes to California first,’ ” said Hicks. “So at a moment in which you have a president that is not interested in lowering prices, not interested in keeping the country out of foreign wars, not interested in standing up for freedom and democracy around the world, California and its leadership has the size, the scale and the history to be able to do exactly that.”