Poll: Vance, Trump Jr. early favorites to win GOP nod for next president

Among 978 registered Republicans and 178 Independents, JD Vance led the pack as the top choice among a group of potential GOP primary candidates and household names in the Republican Party. Thirty-eight percent of Republicans indicated they would vote for Vance if the Republican primary were held the day they were polled, as did 41% of Independents polled.

The other top contenders were Donald Trump Jr., who, though selected by 26% of respondents, still trailed the vice president by 12 points, along with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Vance and Trump Jr. were the only ones, however, to poll out of the single digits, while DeSantis and Rubio polled much closer to the other potential candidates at 6% and 4%.

Of the nine contenders, Vance performed best among Americans ages 45 and older, whites and other races besides Blacks and Hispanics. He secured 40% or more support, as well as those with a household income of $100,000 or less. He also nabbed 42% support from non-colleged-educated respondents. Those 65 and older favored Vance more than any other demographic, with 50% indicating they’d choose the vice president in 2028. 

And while Democrats typically win most of the female vote, Vance actually performed better among Republican and Independent females than males, securing 40% support from women to 36% from men. 

Conversely, Trump Jr. was twice as popular among Republican voters as Independents. Only 13% of Independent respondents chose the president’s son, while he captured 26% of Republicans' support. And while he and Vance appeared equally popular among the college-educated (both received 33% support) Trump Jr. saw far less support from those without a college degree (18%).

Trump Jr. polled slightly better than the vice president with Hispanics and Blacks – 23% and 21% to Vance’s 19% and 18%, respectively – but was the clear favorite among the younger demographic, nabbing roughly 40% of respondents ages 18 to 44. He was more popular with male voters and higher-income households above $100,000.

As far as regional and community preference goes, Vance, the Hillbilly Elegy author, saw 47% support and polled better among suburbanites at 42%. City dwellers clearly preferred Trump Jr., at 44%. Vance also performed best in the country's Midwest, South and West regions, but Trump Jr. polled better in the Northeast, claiming 38% support to Vance’s 31%.

Among the rest, DeSantis held 6% support, followed by Rubio at 4% and Texas U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley at 3%. Sarah Huckabee Sanders, Glenn Youngkin and Tom Cotton polled lowest. Fifteen percent of respondents indicated they weren’t sure who they’d vote for.