POLL: Two years, out, Vance remains clear frontrunner for 2028 GOP primary

Seventeen percent of voters indicated they were unsure of who they would support in 2028.

Rubio and DeSantis both enjoyed an uptick this time, likely due at least in part to the absence of Donald Trump Jr.’s name from the list of possible candidates. The president’s eldest son had been listed on previous polls and was twice the second pick behind Vance. In October, he polled at 25% to Vance’s 38% – the closest anyone has come to challenging the vice president. In March, some of that enthusiasm transferred to Rubio, who went from just 5% in October to 9%. Trump Jr. secured 19% support to Vance’s 36% in March. 

The Center Square chose not to include Trump Jr. in its June poll because he recently said in a post on X that he had “zero interest” in running for office in 2028 “or any time soon” but that he’ll “never 100% rule it out down the line.”

“For this wave, we wanted the hypothetical Republican field to be more focused on candidates who seem more plausible as active contenders at this stage,” said Noble Predictive Insights founder Mike Noble.

Vance performed better among younger voters than any other single demographic. Forty-three percent of 18-29-year-olds polled rallied behind Vance. The only other demographics he reached the 40s in were people who voted for President Donald Trump in the last election and the Northeast region of the country.

He polled better than all of the other names provided with both surveyed partisan groups – Republicans, Independents that lean Republican – and saw strong support across groups with varying levels of education and income. He was also the favored candidate by each racial group, though he performed worst among Black respondents, capturing 21% support. Rubio received support from 14% of Black voters and DeSantis got 10%.

Rubio performed markedly better among male respondents than females, with 21% and 14%, respectively. Of the age groups, he polled best with those 65 and older at 26% and worst with the 18-29-year-old segment, supported by just 3% of the demographic. He also performed better with Independents with a right lean than he did with those identifying as Republican. He captured 17% of Republicans support but 20% of Independents', compared to Vance’s 26%.

Among those with differing levels of education, Rubio performed best among those with at least some college under their belt, particularly with those who had some post-graduate schooling, capturing 22% support. He won the most support from Hispanics and Latinos as a racial group with 24% to Vance’s 37%. 

Rubio also performed best among the Northeast at 20% compared to the West and South, at 16% and 18%, respectively. DeSantis captured 9% support among southern respondents compared to 6% in the West and 4% in the Northeast.

Other names polled included multiple former presidential candidates – Texas U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz, South Carolina U.S. Sen. Tim Scott, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, and GOP candidate for governor in Ohio Vivek Ramaswamy – and former and current state governors, members of Congress and administration officials.

The poll was conducted nationally by Noble Predictive Insights from June 1-4, 2026, using an opt-in online panel and text-to-web cell phone messages to survey registered voters. The sample consisted of 915 Republicans and 149 right-leaning Independents. It is among the most comprehensive polls in the country.