Oklahoma Senate primary kicks off race to succeed Mullin

With the seat rated “Solid Republican” by the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, all eyes are on who emerges victorious in the GOP primary. Hern, who represents Oklahoma's 1st congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives, leads the pack in both fundraising and recent polling.

Republicans are aiming to keep the seat on their side of the aisle as they defend a 53-45 Senate majority. With a third of the Senate up for reelection and only a slim Republican edge, every race counts in determining which party controls Congress’ upper chamber in the latter half of Trump’s second term.

Republican primary

Hern, an entrepreneur and former fast-food franchisee, was first elected to the House in 2018. After Mullin announced his resignation from the Senate to join the president’s cabinet, Hern entered the race to succeed him and was endorsed by Trump soon after.

Hern has built his Senate campaign on his rise from a childhood in poverty to growing a small-business empire as the key to understanding the needs of working-class Oklahomans.

“I’ve always been America First, because America is the only country in the world where a kid like me who grew up dirt poor can work his way out of poverty, build a business and earn your trust to serve Oklahomans,’’ Hern said in his campaign announcement video.

During his two-year stint chairing the Republican Study Committee, the largest conservative caucus in the House, Hern oversaw annual budget proposals pushing for deeper cuts to discretionary spending. A fiscal conservative, he has supported making the 2017 Trump tax cuts permanent and pushed for deficit and debt reduction.

Recent polling of 550 likely voters between June 2 and 3 by JMC Analytics and Polling showed Hern leading with 41% support, followed by country music singer Gary “Ty” England at 8%, firefighter-paramedic Brian Ragain at 4%, Air Force veteran Sean Buckner at 2% and data developer Nick Hankins at 1%. Notably, 44% remained undecided.

England, who polled highest among Hern’s opponents, is running a campaign focused on tackling government waste.

“Our healthcare and Social Security systems have been plundered by government waste and our Department of Education is not preparing our youth for their futures,” England said.

Hern also holds a financial advantage among the Republican candidate pool. According to his latest Federal Election Commission (FEC) filings, Hern has raised $9.3 million and reported $6.8 million on hand, dwarfing his rivals. The next closest was Ragain, with $27,000 raised.

Tuesday’s primary may not settle the Republican nomination, however. Oklahoma is one of a handful of states requiring a primary winner to take more than 50% of the vote, a threshold recent polling suggests Hern is short of. If no candidate clears 50%, the top two advance to a runoff on Aug. 25.

Democratic primary

Five candidates will appear on the Democratic ballot Tuesday.

Jim Priest, a lawyer and ordained minister, leads the Democratic field in fundraising with $263,000 raised as of May 27, per the FEC. He has campaigned on national unity, pointing to the same cost-of-living pressures driving voters in both parties and arguing that partisan division crowds out real solutions.

"Paychecks will still fall short, healthcare will still be too expensive and the cost of groceries will just keep going up," Priest said. "And instead of solving these problems, Washington attempts to divide us into us and them."

Trailing Priest, nurse N'Kiyla Thomas has raised $45,000, followed by small-business owner Troy W. Green with $32,000 and former state Sen. Ervin Yen with $20,000. Veteran R.O. Joe Cassity has reported no funds.

Yen, an anesthesiologist and Oklahoma City native, is leaning on his professional background to run a campaign focused on healthcare, citing Oklahoma's low national health rankings to argue overhaul is necessary.

"I’m the only candidate with more than 40 years of doing intensive research, prioritizing data and observation, leading a team of experts, and making critical decisions in high-pressure life and death situations,” Yen said. “And that’s exactly how serious the challenges are for Oklahomans, for democracy, for our nation.”

The winner in Tuesday’s Democratic primary will run in a state that has not elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1990.

What to know on Election Day

Polls will be open from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. CT on Tuesday.

As Oklahoma uses a closed primary system, only voters registered with a party can cast ballots in the primary this week. Each party’s nominee will advance to the Nov. 3 general election, when all voters in Oklahoma will have the chance to weigh in on the state's next senator.