Americans paying bulk of Trump's tariffs as ruling awaits

So far, research has shown the opposite.

"U.S. firms and consumers continue to bear the bulk of the economic burden of the high tariffs imposed in 2025," according to a report from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

However, those figures changed throughout 2025, with declines toward the end of the year.

"Our results imply that U.S. import prices for goods subject to the average tariff increased by 11% more than those for goods not subject to tariffs," the authors wrote. "These higher import prices caused firms to reorganize supply chains."

Other studies have reported similar findings on the impact of the tariffs.

The Kiel Institute for the World Economy found that Americans are paying almost the entire cost of tariffs. A December 2025 study from Duke's Department of Economics found that during the 2019–21 trade dispute, consumers ultimately paid more than the tariff cost on European wines. The upshot was that Americans paid higher costs than the federal government collected in tariff revenue.

Goldman Sachs economists projected in October that American consumers will pay 55% of the tariff costs, U.S. businesses will pay 22% and foreign exporters will pay 18%.

Peter Navarro, a top trade adviser to Trump, has said it is about bargaining power: "In real markets, the burden falls on whoever can't afford to lose access to the U.S. consumer."

The White House has said foreign exporters who depend on access to the American economy will ultimately pay the cost of the tariffs.

Trump has made tariffs a central part of his economic agenda during his second term. In April 2025, Trump imposed import taxes of at least 10% on every U.S. trading partner. Since then, the president has suspended, changed, increased, decreased, and reimposed tariffs under the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act.

A group of states and small businesses challenged Trump's tariffs under the 1977 law, winning in two lower courts before the administration appealed to the U.S. Supreme Court. The high court agreed to hear the case on an expedited basis.