Average daily flight passenger traffic has surpassed COVID lows but is showing signs of slowing down
Source: Luxury Link analysis of Transportation Security Administration (TSA) data
Air travel has rebounded significantly since the sharp declines of 2020, with average daily passenger traffic now exceeding 2019 levels. According to Transportation Security Administration (TSA) data, daily passenger volume during the 2019 holiday season—the periods surrounding Thanksgiving and the winter holidays—averaged more than 2.3 million. That figure plunged to under 1 million in 2020 amid widespread travel restrictions. As those restrictions eased, air travel steadily recovered, reaching over 2.4 million daily passengers during the 2023 holiday season—surpassing 2019 levels. By 2025, holiday travel climbed even higher, averaging more than 2.5 million daily passengers.
Non-holiday passenger traffic has followed a similar trajectory. While average daily traffic approached 2.4 million in 2025—surpassing 2024 levels—2026 non-holiday traffic is now on pace to log its first decline since 2020, dropping nearly 3% year-over-year. This downturn coincides with the U.S.-Israeli conflict in Iran, which has triggered a spike in jet fuel prices and forced commercial airlines to raise airfares. With elevated ticket costs already weighing on general passenger volumes, the upcoming holiday season will serve as a critical test of whether travelers are willing to absorb these higher prices.
