Report warns drug-resistant superbug infections will soon soar

Demographic changes are expected to fuel a "substantial" increase in the rate of potentially deadly superbugs such as MRSA across Britain and Europe between now and 2030, say scientists.

Infection rates in Ireland could increase by as much as 62 times by 2050, according to the findings published in the journal PLOS Medicine.

The research team explained that antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is a global public health crisis.

To effectively target interventions and track progress toward international goals, they say accurately estimating how the AMR burden will change over time is necessary.

Researchers analyzed data from more than 12 million routine blood tests for bacterial infection susceptibility in 29 European countries between 2010 and 2019 for the new study.

The team used the figures to generate incidence rates of such infections and predict how rates of drug-resistant bloodstream infections may change through to 2050, accounting for projected population changes.

The researchers found that bloodstream infection rates are predicted to increase, varying by country and by bacteria-antibiotic combination.

Rates are expected to rise more in men than women across six of the eight bacteria studied, and are projected to increase most dramatically in the 74 or older age group while stabilising or declining among younger people.

Study author Professor Gwenan Knight, of the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, says models that don't account for age and sex may miss a large part of the future burden, especially among men and older adults.

The study concluded that, even with strong public health interventions, achieving a 10% reduction in resistant infections by 2030 - in line with UN targets - was only possible for about two-thirds of bacteria-antibiotic combinations.

Knight said: “Our study shows that the future burden of drug-resistant infections won’t be uniform - there will be substantial differences between countries, as well as across age groups and between sexes.

"We see the steepest increases in incidence projected in older age groups, particularly the over 65s, meaning that simply preventing further rises in resistant bloodstream infections would already be a major public health achievement.”

She added, “What I found most interesting was bringing together different strands of data to show the bigger picture.

"Age and sex are still rarely considered in antimicrobial resistance projections, yet they make a real difference to who is most affected.

"Combining these factors with demographic and infection trends really highlighted how challenging it will be to reverse the steady rise in bloodstream infections across Europe.”

Co-author Dr Catrin Moore said: “This is a fantastic step forward in understanding the way that age and sex will influence the burden of drug-resistant infections in different European countries in the coming years."

She added: "This will help us design intervention studies focusing on the populations most at risk in the future to reduce the mortality and morbidity associated with drug-resistant infections.”