Trump admin again claims Mexico will comply with water treaty

Seven months after the initial claim that Mexico would comply, it hadn’t. Gov. Greg Abbott again demanded that Mexican authorities fulfill their treaty obligation, as he has repeatedly done, and pointed to a potential solution proposed by Texas U.S. senators, The Center Square reported.

At issue is a 1944 Treaty of Utilization of Waters, which governs water usage between the U.S. and Mexico, including from two international reservoirs, Lake Amistad and Falcon Lake in Texas along the international border. Mexico has historically released water storage from Lake Amistad to Mexican growers, not to Texas growers, and the U.S. federal government hasn’t enforced the treaty. Last year, Mexican officials killed any agreements to release water to Texans, even running ads in Mexico City to protest compliance, according to several news reports. 

The Rio Grande Valley is among the most fertile agricultural regions in Texas and the U.S. Half of crop production acreage in the lower Rio Grande Valley is irrigated. In order to grow a wide range of crops, farmers rely on water from the Colorado and Rio Grande rivers. The agricultural industry in the valley contributes roughly $1 billion annually to the economy and provides roughly 8,400 full-time jobs, The Center Square reported. 

Under the Biden administration, calls for Mexico to comply fell on deaf ears and systemic water shortages forced Texas’ last sugar mill to close, The Center Square reported. 

Under the treaty, Mexico is obligated to deliver 1.75 million acre-feet over five years to the United States from the Rio Grande River; the U.S. is obligated to deliver 1.5 million acre-feet of water to Mexico from the Colorado River. The U.S. has consistently met its delivery obligations, according to International Boundary and Water Commission data.

The last five-year cycle ended in October with Mexico only having delivered approximately 885,000 acre-feet, less than 50% of its total obligation. Mexico’s delivery deficit was more than 800,000 acre-feet of water, equivalent to roughly 2.5 years of required deliveries, according to IBWC data.   

Four days after The Center Square reported that Mexico still hadn’t complied seven months after the administration’s claim and Texas still hadn’t received its water, the State Department issued a statement saying senior officials met with Mexican officials to “discuss immediate and concrete steps Mexico would take” to comply. “The officials examined available water resources and the United States pressed for the maximum possible deliveries to Texas users. We have requested additional information and will reconvene to consider additional options,” it said.

It also said that under the Trump administration, “Mexico has delivered more water in the last year than in the previous four years combined. However, shortfalls in Mexico’s water deliveries have exacerbated water scarcity in Texas and contributed to hundreds of millions of dollars in crop losses for farmers.”

Secretary of State Marco Rubio has “been clear that Mexico must meet their obligations … including making up the approximately 865,000 acre-feet shortfall over the 2020-2025 five-year cycle and meeting delivery requirements under the 2025-2030 cycle,” it said.

His office is attempting to resolve the issue through diplomatic channels but is also evaluating “all available options to ensure Mexico complies with its water delivery obligations,” it says.

Three weeks later, U.S. Department of Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins announced an agreement had been reached, with new water deliveries beginning this week. 

“Mexico has agreed to release 202,000-acre feet of water to the United States with deliveries expected to begin the week of December 15, 2025,” Rollins said. “Timely repayment of the outstanding deficit from the previous water cycle is understood by Mexico. The United States and Mexico are in negotiations to finalize a plan by the end of January 2026.” 

“Although this is a step in the right direction, President Trump has been very clear: if Mexico continues to violate its commitments, the United States reserves the right and will impose 5% tariffs on Mexican products,” she added.

Rollins also said a “series of actions to meet the treaty obligations have been reviewed, including timely repayment of the outstanding deficit from the previous water cycle,” in accordance with the treaty. 

Negotiations are ongoing; a plan is expected to be finalized by Jan. 31, 2026.