D21 considers drop in enrollment

The job of estimating enrollment falls to the district’s chief financial officer, Randy Anderson. He told the school board Tuesday the enrollment figures were disconcerting and also “pretty unusual,” coming on the heels of a “remarkably steady” stretch of incremental growth.

The raw enrollment figures will eventually be weighted, figuring in the number of students who are in poverty, special education, or are English language learners.

That ultimately produces a higher enrollment figure than raw numbers. The district gets state school funds based on the higher, weighted enrollment figure.

The 2014-15 school year had a weighted enrollment of 3,723. It has shifted up and down over the years, but was at a low of 3,481 in 2008-09. In 2004-05, the first year of the district’s existence, it was 3,551, according to Anderson.

Given the drop in figures, he has lowered the raw, unweighted enrollment estimate for next school year by 70 students, down to 3,068. He said, “Seventy kids is not insignificant.”

What this means in dollar terms is an unknown.

In March, the district will learn what the state will pay per student next fiscal year.

This year, the figure is $7,300, but that will change, and for the better, next year.

That’s because it’s the second year of the biennium, and that year is always a larger figure because the state typically distributes 49 percent of its two-year budget in the first year, and 51

percent the second year, Anderson said.

Then, in June, the district will learn what its final, weighted enrollment for the year was.

While this enrollment drop won’t affect this year’s budget, it will have to be accounted for in next year’s budget.

Every May, the state reconciles what it paid each district in the previous fiscal year based on enrollment estimates, versus what the enrollment actually was. It adjusts the May payment to the district up or down, accordingly.

“My focus is, I need to anticipate a May adjustment and put that in the upcoming year’s budget,” Anderson said.

He said the drop in state school funding could amount to something between $350,000 and $400,000.

However, he cautioned that, “It would be wrong to say our budget will go down by $350,000.

“For instance, we haven’t done the run to see what local property tax collections have been like. I don’t want people to assume that the enrollment automatically makes that much reduction in the general fund budget. The state school fund, although a big piece, is not the only piece of the general fund revenue.”

Despite the downgraded numbers, Anderson is hopeful things will turn around. “Maybe it’ll get mostly corrected by year’s end,” he said.